594 FXUS63 KAPX 190132 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 932 PM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 933 PM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021 Surface ridging continues to poke northward into lower MI. Skies are effectively clear, and temps are falling quickly into the 40s. Most guidance min temp guidance appears too warm, and have lowered things a bit. Also some valley/ground fog is expected (MBL already seeing vsby restrictions). && .NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight) Issued at 341 PM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021 ...Clear and Comfortable Tonight... High Impact Weather Potential...None. High pressure currently extending from eastern Wisconsin into western portions of the Great Lakes will move slowly across the region tonight. Meanwhile, the upper level ridge axis will approach from the west. This pattern should continue to lead to clear skies through tonight. Temperatures are a bit tricky with the pressure gradient tightening up some overnight. Winds aloft increase but surface winds are expected to be decoupled due to the center of the upper level ridge remaining just to our west. This setup should lead to lows mainly in the low and mid 40s except for the mid and upper 30s in low lying spots. && .SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Thursday) Issued at 341 PM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021 High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...A large area of high pressure and associated dry air centered over the southeastern CONUS will continue to ridge into the Great Lakes region, providing sunshine and above normal temperatures to the forecast area. This high pressure will be surrounded by systems to the west, east, and north...producing a pressure gradient that will create breezy conditions from the west Tuesday and much of Wednesday, especially during the afternoon hours. As the system to our west approaches the forecast area it continues to deepen slightly and advect deeper moisture on strong southerly flow with the warm front draped across the straits area Wednesday night, returning shower/thunder chances to the area. The low continues to deepen as it crosses through northern Michigan Thursday. Winds then veer to northwesterly behind the departing system Thursday afternoon/evening, ushering in cooler temperatures with gusts of 20-25mph. Eastern upper may see some lake effect begin at this time as cooler 850mb temperatures will descend there first, along with wrap around moisture, with 850mb temperatures of -2 to -5C. Northern lower will see this begin later in the evening to the overnight hours into the next forecast period as this colder air pushes farther south. Daytime temperatures will continue to be above normal for this time of the year reaching to near 70 Tuesday. Temperatures Wednesday will vary greatly from north to south, with eastern upper only reaching into the upper 50s (but still above normal) and northeast lower into the mid to upper 60s. Thursday will be cooler yet again as the colder air filters in on the northwesterly flow, reaching into the 50s throughout the entire forecast area. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 341 PM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021 High Impact Weather Potential...minimal. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Heights continue to fall as well as 850mb temperatures behind the departing system from the previous forecast period as it continues off to the northeast and deepen some more. 850mb temperatures will be -2 to -5C throughout the entire forecast area with winds north-northwesterly producing some lake effect/enhanced showers in that favorable wind regime area. The rest of the area...especially eastern upper will be more favorable for lake enhanced showers as the wrap around moisture from the departing system lingers overhead. Friday night and Saturday night may be the first chance for some to see snow flying as overnight temperatures near or possibly exceed freezing. This will be mostly over the higher terrain of interior northern lower and eastern upper Michigan. No accumulations are expected as ground temperatures will be too warm and some locations may even be mixed with some rain as you move farther from the higher terrain areas. The rest of the forecast period will have a rather progressive pattern with precipitation chances throughout with rain possibly mixing in with snow or changing over to snow each night through at least Sunday night. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 717 PM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021 VFR, other than some potential ground fog overnight. High pressure in eastern KY extends ridging into lower MI. Abundant dry air is leading to clear skies; perhaps a few shreds of cirrus arrive Tuesday. Not out of the question a touch of fog could form overnight, mainly at PLN and MBL. Otherwise VFR. A bit of a sw breeze develops Tuesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 341 PM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021 Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria thru the early part of this work week as high pressure remains in control. Dry wx is expected thru Tuesday night...with rain expected to arrive later Wednesday and Wednesday night. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JZ NEAR TERM...AS SHORT TERM...TL LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...JZ MARINE...AS