358 
FXUS63 KICT 080811
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
311 AM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021

Water vapor currently shows an upper low tracking across the Mid
Mississippi Valley and about to move into the southwestern Great
Lakes region. Meanwhile approaching the west coast there is upper
energy approaching the Pacific Northwest with a southern stream
impulse approaching southern CA.

Some weak upper ridging is expected to pass over the Southern
Plains today which will provide continued sunshine and above
normal temps. Tonight, the upper impulse approaching Southern CA
will quickly race off to the northeast and will track over the
Northern Plains by Sat morning. Meanwhile the northern stream
system will start to dig over southern CA and will track into the
Desert Southwest for Sat afternoon/Sat evening. This setup will
spread a large area of southwest flow aloft over the
central/southern Plains for Sat.

Confidence remains very high in record max temps for Sat with
850mb temps along with 1000-850mb thicknesses supportive of mid to
possibly upper 90s. These high readings will also be aided by a
downslope component to surface winds, especially across central
KS. See fire weather section below on how winds and low RH values
will impact fire conditions. 

By Sun morning, southern stream vort max will be tracking over NM
and out into the High Plains by late Sun afternoon. At the same
time cold front is expected to move through the forecast area from
NW to SE through the day. Storms are expected to develop along the
front generally during the afternoon with additional storms
expected along the dryline which will be situated over central OK
into TX. At this time it appears the more widespread robust
convection will be over central and eastern OK but there is a
chance some of this may clip far southeast KS late Sun afternoon.
All severe hazards will be possible with the stronger storms over
eastern OK and extreme southeast KS, with the activity to become
more linear in nature toward the early evening hours.

Sun night the shortwave is expected to lift over southeast KS and
into northern Missouri by Mon afternoon. This will place much of 
the forecast area in the wrap around region of this system with 
some heavy rain possible on the backside of this shortwave Sun 
night into early Mon morning. 

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday) 
Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021

Pattern is expected to remain very active with good model
agreement in an even more robust shortwave digging over the Great
Basin by Mon night. This feature is then forecast to move across
the Rockies Tue into Tue night. The 00z ECMWF did come in further
west with this feature compared to the more progressive GFS. The
faster GFS would place a dryline from north to south through
Central KS with the slower ECMWF having this same feature in place
for Wed. So while there is uncertainty with regards to the 
timing, it does look likely that parts of the central and southern
Plains will see a severe weather episode in the Tue-Wed time 
frame. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Thu Oct 7 2021

VFR is anticipated as we look ahead at the 24-hr period for all
TAF locations. A developing LLJ will nose into southern KS tonight
bringing some marginal low level wind shear concerns over mainly
southern Kansas. Southerly winds may gust to around 20 or 25 
knots at times while backing to a southeasterly direction later 
in the day. We could see some transient mid clouds in the 
7000-8000ft range impact portions of southeast KS after 08-10Z 
through daybreak along the nose of the LLJ but other than a brief 
sprinkle, little impact to aviation is anticipated.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021

Dangerous burning conditions will be in place Saturday afternoon
across the entire area. 

Southwest winds Sat afternoon are forecast to be in the 20-30 mph
range with gusts 35 to 40 mph, with the highest speeds over
southern KS. Lowest afternoon RH values are expected to range from
around 20% west of I-135 to around 30% over southeast KS. This
will result in widespread very high grassland fire danger with the
chance for pockets of extreme. Outdoor burning Sat is highly
discouraged. 


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    60  92  66  95 /  10   0   0   0 
Hutchinson      57  91  64  95 /   0   0   0   0 
Newton          59  91  65  95 /  10   0   0   0 
ElDorado        61  91  68  94 /  10  10   0   0 
Winfield-KWLD   62  93  68  96 /  10   0   0   0 
Russell         54  88  60  93 /   0   0   0   0 
Great Bend      54  90  61  95 /   0   0   0   0 
Salina          58  88  63  96 /  10   0   0   0 
McPherson       57  90  64  94 /  10   0   0   0 
Coffeyville     61  90  68  93 /  10  10   0   0 
Chanute         61  89  67  92 /  10  10   0   0 
Iola            60  89  67  92 /  10  10   0   0 
Parsons-KPPF    61  90  68  93 /  10  10   0   0 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...MWM
FIRE WEATHER...RBL