358 FXUS63 KICT 080811 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 311 AM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night) Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021 Water vapor currently shows an upper low tracking across the Mid Mississippi Valley and about to move into the southwestern Great Lakes region. Meanwhile approaching the west coast there is upper energy approaching the Pacific Northwest with a southern stream impulse approaching southern CA. Some weak upper ridging is expected to pass over the Southern Plains today which will provide continued sunshine and above normal temps. Tonight, the upper impulse approaching Southern CA will quickly race off to the northeast and will track over the Northern Plains by Sat morning. Meanwhile the northern stream system will start to dig over southern CA and will track into the Desert Southwest for Sat afternoon/Sat evening. This setup will spread a large area of southwest flow aloft over the central/southern Plains for Sat. Confidence remains very high in record max temps for Sat with 850mb temps along with 1000-850mb thicknesses supportive of mid to possibly upper 90s. These high readings will also be aided by a downslope component to surface winds, especially across central KS. See fire weather section below on how winds and low RH values will impact fire conditions. By Sun morning, southern stream vort max will be tracking over NM and out into the High Plains by late Sun afternoon. At the same time cold front is expected to move through the forecast area from NW to SE through the day. Storms are expected to develop along the front generally during the afternoon with additional storms expected along the dryline which will be situated over central OK into TX. At this time it appears the more widespread robust convection will be over central and eastern OK but there is a chance some of this may clip far southeast KS late Sun afternoon. All severe hazards will be possible with the stronger storms over eastern OK and extreme southeast KS, with the activity to become more linear in nature toward the early evening hours. Sun night the shortwave is expected to lift over southeast KS and into northern Missouri by Mon afternoon. This will place much of the forecast area in the wrap around region of this system with some heavy rain possible on the backside of this shortwave Sun night into early Mon morning. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021 Pattern is expected to remain very active with good model agreement in an even more robust shortwave digging over the Great Basin by Mon night. This feature is then forecast to move across the Rockies Tue into Tue night. The 00z ECMWF did come in further west with this feature compared to the more progressive GFS. The faster GFS would place a dryline from north to south through Central KS with the slower ECMWF having this same feature in place for Wed. So while there is uncertainty with regards to the timing, it does look likely that parts of the central and southern Plains will see a severe weather episode in the Tue-Wed time frame. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1136 PM CDT Thu Oct 7 2021 VFR is anticipated as we look ahead at the 24-hr period for all TAF locations. A developing LLJ will nose into southern KS tonight bringing some marginal low level wind shear concerns over mainly southern Kansas. Southerly winds may gust to around 20 or 25 knots at times while backing to a southeasterly direction later in the day. We could see some transient mid clouds in the 7000-8000ft range impact portions of southeast KS after 08-10Z through daybreak along the nose of the LLJ but other than a brief sprinkle, little impact to aviation is anticipated. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021 Dangerous burning conditions will be in place Saturday afternoon across the entire area. Southwest winds Sat afternoon are forecast to be in the 20-30 mph range with gusts 35 to 40 mph, with the highest speeds over southern KS. Lowest afternoon RH values are expected to range from around 20% west of I-135 to around 30% over southeast KS. This will result in widespread very high grassland fire danger with the chance for pockets of extreme. Outdoor burning Sat is highly discouraged. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 60 92 66 95 / 10 0 0 0 Hutchinson 57 91 64 95 / 0 0 0 0 Newton 59 91 65 95 / 10 0 0 0 ElDorado 61 91 68 94 / 10 10 0 0 Winfield-KWLD 62 93 68 96 / 10 0 0 0 Russell 54 88 60 93 / 0 0 0 0 Great Bend 54 90 61 95 / 0 0 0 0 Salina 58 88 63 96 / 10 0 0 0 McPherson 57 90 64 94 / 10 0 0 0 Coffeyville 61 90 68 93 / 10 10 0 0 Chanute 61 89 67 92 / 10 10 0 0 Iola 60 89 67 92 / 10 10 0 0 Parsons-KPPF 61 90 68 93 / 10 10 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RBL LONG TERM...RBL AVIATION...MWM FIRE WEATHER...RBL