581 
FXUS63 KICT 080439
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1139 PM CDT Thu Oct 7 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu Oct 7 2021

Bottom line up front:  Well above normal temperatures for 
Fri and Sat. Chance of storms on Sun afternoon/evening and again on 
Tue. 

Pesky upper low currently over eastern MO, continues to make slow 
progress to the east of the forecast area, with warm advection and 
clearing skies returning to most of the forecast area. The mid 
level warm advection and moisture advection led to a few 
showers/storms developing over SW KS last night, with remnant 
clouds moving across south central KS at this time. 

For tonight, the latest short term RAP suggests that the mid level 
warm advection and 850-700h moisture transport will increase for 
areas east of I-135 this evening and tonight, with this moisture 
transport and mid level isentropic ascent increasing over eastern 
KS into SE KS by early on Fri. For now plan on keeping the gist of 
the forecast dry, as dry air below the increasing mid level 
advection will limit any moisture from reaching the ground. Possibly 
a few sprinkles or two, so will include this mention for SE KS. 

Upper ridging building into the plains will support warmer 
temperatures going into Fri and Sat, with forecast highs climbing 
into the mid 80s to low 90s on Fri, with record or near record highs 
expected on Sat. (see climate section below). Normal highs this time 
of year are in the mid 70s!

The warm and breezy conditions continue for Sat as well, as optimal 
downslope conditions lead to max temperatures well above normal for 
Sat afternoon. With the near record highs and breezy south winds, 
could also see some elevated grassland fire concerns, see the 
fire weather section below for more details. 

A cold front looks to move southeast across the forecast area on 
Sunday, which will lead to most areas seeing cooler temperatures for 
Sunday afternoon.  Sunday evening through Monday gets interesting as 
a strong shortwave moves out of the southern Rockies, and across 
northern OK and southern KS for Sunday evening and takes a negative 
tilt as it moves across southern KS.  Will have to keep an eye on 
this time frame, as there is some question about moisture quality 
ahead of this system, but the strong lift and increasing moisture 
will lead to shower and thunderstorm chance for Sunday 
evening/night, with the highest chances for areas east of the KS 
Turnpike. If surface moisture return increases, than there is a 
chance of strong to severe storms over SE KS, for Sun evening, given 
the high bulk shear values, as the cold front pushes into the Flint 
Hills. Stay tuned. Latest model runs seem to be favoring shifting 
the shower/storm chances further SE into areas east of the KS 
Turnpike.   

Ketcham 

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu Oct 7 2021

The active pattern looks to continue for Tue through Wed of next 
week, as deterministic and ensemble consensus digs an unseasonably
strong/deep upper trough across the western US, eventually 
ejecting it east/northeast into Plains. Models are similar in 
digging this strong upper trough across the western US, but 
uncertainty exists on the evolution of its eventual ejection onto 
the Plains. Will have to keep an eye on this period as well, as 
the potentially strong lift coupled with increasing low level 
moisture return/instability could once again support widespread 
showers/thunderstorms across the forecast area, with even the 
potential for severe weather either Tue or Wed. 

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Thu Oct 7 2021

VFR is anticipated as we look ahead at the 24-hr period for all
TAF locations. A developing LLJ will nose into southern KS tonight
bringing some marginal low level wind shear concerns over mainly
southern Kansas. Southerly winds may gust to around 20 or 25 
knots at times while backing to a southeasterly direction later 
in the day. We could see some transient mid clouds in the 
7000-8000ft range impact portions of southeast KS after 08-10Z 
through daybreak along the nose of the LLJ but other than a brief 
sprinkle, little impact to aviation is anticipated.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu Oct 7 2021

Near record high temperatures coupled with humidity values 
in the lower 20 percent range and gusty south-southwest winds should 
support elevated grassland fire danger concerns for Saturday, 
especially where warm season grasses are drier. Thinking these fine 
fuels are driest across generally southern/southeast Kansas, where 
30-60 day rainfall deficits are greatest. Will need to keep an eye 
on this period, especially if dewpoints trend drier and winds trend 
stronger. At this time, it looks like high to very high grassland 
fire danger values will exist across southern KS and the Flint Hills 
for Saturday afternoon.   

Ketcham 

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu Oct 7 2021

Saturday, Oct 9th, Record temperatures and forecasted highs. 

           Record High          Forecast Highs

Chanute     94 in 1963              93 
Wichita     92 in 1963              95
Russell     92 in 2020              93 
Salina      94 in 1921              94  

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    60  91  67  92 /  10   0   0   0 
Hutchinson      57  90  63  92 /   0   0   0   0 
Newton          59  89  66  91 /  10   0   0   0 
ElDorado        61  89  67  90 /  10   0   0   0 
Winfield-KWLD   62  93  69  93 /  10   0   0   0 
Russell         54  88  60  90 /   0   0   0   0 
Great Bend      54  90  60  91 /   0   0   0   0 
Salina          58  88  63  93 /  10   0   0   0 
McPherson       57  90  63  91 /  10   0   0   0 
Coffeyville     61  94  68  93 /  10   0   0   0 
Chanute         61  92  68  92 /  10   0   0   0 
Iola            60  90  67  91 /  10   0   0   0 
Parsons-KPPF    61  94  68  92 /  10   0   0   0 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...MWM
FIRE WEATHER...Ketcham
CLIMATE...Ketcham