581 FXUS63 KICT 080439 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1139 PM CDT Thu Oct 7 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu Oct 7 2021 Bottom line up front: Well above normal temperatures for Fri and Sat. Chance of storms on Sun afternoon/evening and again on Tue. Pesky upper low currently over eastern MO, continues to make slow progress to the east of the forecast area, with warm advection and clearing skies returning to most of the forecast area. The mid level warm advection and moisture advection led to a few showers/storms developing over SW KS last night, with remnant clouds moving across south central KS at this time. For tonight, the latest short term RAP suggests that the mid level warm advection and 850-700h moisture transport will increase for areas east of I-135 this evening and tonight, with this moisture transport and mid level isentropic ascent increasing over eastern KS into SE KS by early on Fri. For now plan on keeping the gist of the forecast dry, as dry air below the increasing mid level advection will limit any moisture from reaching the ground. Possibly a few sprinkles or two, so will include this mention for SE KS. Upper ridging building into the plains will support warmer temperatures going into Fri and Sat, with forecast highs climbing into the mid 80s to low 90s on Fri, with record or near record highs expected on Sat. (see climate section below). Normal highs this time of year are in the mid 70s! The warm and breezy conditions continue for Sat as well, as optimal downslope conditions lead to max temperatures well above normal for Sat afternoon. With the near record highs and breezy south winds, could also see some elevated grassland fire concerns, see the fire weather section below for more details. A cold front looks to move southeast across the forecast area on Sunday, which will lead to most areas seeing cooler temperatures for Sunday afternoon. Sunday evening through Monday gets interesting as a strong shortwave moves out of the southern Rockies, and across northern OK and southern KS for Sunday evening and takes a negative tilt as it moves across southern KS. Will have to keep an eye on this time frame, as there is some question about moisture quality ahead of this system, but the strong lift and increasing moisture will lead to shower and thunderstorm chance for Sunday evening/night, with the highest chances for areas east of the KS Turnpike. If surface moisture return increases, than there is a chance of strong to severe storms over SE KS, for Sun evening, given the high bulk shear values, as the cold front pushes into the Flint Hills. Stay tuned. Latest model runs seem to be favoring shifting the shower/storm chances further SE into areas east of the KS Turnpike. Ketcham .LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu Oct 7 2021 The active pattern looks to continue for Tue through Wed of next week, as deterministic and ensemble consensus digs an unseasonably strong/deep upper trough across the western US, eventually ejecting it east/northeast into Plains. Models are similar in digging this strong upper trough across the western US, but uncertainty exists on the evolution of its eventual ejection onto the Plains. Will have to keep an eye on this period as well, as the potentially strong lift coupled with increasing low level moisture return/instability could once again support widespread showers/thunderstorms across the forecast area, with even the potential for severe weather either Tue or Wed. Ketcham && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1136 PM CDT Thu Oct 7 2021 VFR is anticipated as we look ahead at the 24-hr period for all TAF locations. A developing LLJ will nose into southern KS tonight bringing some marginal low level wind shear concerns over mainly southern Kansas. Southerly winds may gust to around 20 or 25 knots at times while backing to a southeasterly direction later in the day. We could see some transient mid clouds in the 7000-8000ft range impact portions of southeast KS after 08-10Z through daybreak along the nose of the LLJ but other than a brief sprinkle, little impact to aviation is anticipated. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu Oct 7 2021 Near record high temperatures coupled with humidity values in the lower 20 percent range and gusty south-southwest winds should support elevated grassland fire danger concerns for Saturday, especially where warm season grasses are drier. Thinking these fine fuels are driest across generally southern/southeast Kansas, where 30-60 day rainfall deficits are greatest. Will need to keep an eye on this period, especially if dewpoints trend drier and winds trend stronger. At this time, it looks like high to very high grassland fire danger values will exist across southern KS and the Flint Hills for Saturday afternoon. Ketcham && .CLIMATE... Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu Oct 7 2021 Saturday, Oct 9th, Record temperatures and forecasted highs. Record High Forecast Highs Chanute 94 in 1963 93 Wichita 92 in 1963 95 Russell 92 in 2020 93 Salina 94 in 1921 94 Ketcham && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 60 91 67 92 / 10 0 0 0 Hutchinson 57 90 63 92 / 0 0 0 0 Newton 59 89 66 91 / 10 0 0 0 ElDorado 61 89 67 90 / 10 0 0 0 Winfield-KWLD 62 93 69 93 / 10 0 0 0 Russell 54 88 60 90 / 0 0 0 0 Great Bend 54 90 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 Salina 58 88 63 93 / 10 0 0 0 McPherson 57 90 63 91 / 10 0 0 0 Coffeyville 61 94 68 93 / 10 0 0 0 Chanute 61 92 68 92 / 10 0 0 0 Iola 60 90 67 91 / 10 0 0 0 Parsons-KPPF 61 94 68 92 / 10 0 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ketcham LONG TERM...Ketcham AVIATION...MWM FIRE WEATHER...Ketcham CLIMATE...Ketcham