200 
FXUS64 KMAF 062006
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
306 PM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals next 24 hrs.
Generally CLR with passing cirrus and mid-level stratus, generally
over SE NM terminals this PM. Few to sct cu over KCNM possible
after 20z, dissipating after sunset. Winds will shift SE 
everywhere and hold steady at KFST/KMAF due to weak LLJ. Some 
variability elsewhere after 09z. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021

A benign forecast is exactly what we're going to see over the next 
1.5 days with little in the way of impactful weather on the horizon. 
The region is still encompassed by ridging with above avg heights 
nestled overhead. This has allowed our temps to remain 5-10 degrees 
above where we normally stand this part of October. No relief in 
sight as our upper low over the Mississippi Valley will begin to 
move NE and breakdown heading into the end of the week. This will 
allow for heights to rise even further and ridging to put a 
stranglehold over the southern plains. Highs in the U80s to 90s will 
be prominent for Thursday with lows still just slightly above normal 
areawide thanks to drier air and decent radiational cooling. The only 
precip threat will be today at the most marginal level possible as a 
weak shortwave passes over Chihuahua and some elevated storms might 
pass through the Presidio Valley and northern Rio Grande. It's 
certainly nothing over the top with max PoPs around 15-20%, although 
compared to tomorrow's setup where any convective threat is dead in 
the water, it's something.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday) 
Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021

Upper level ridging will persist through the long term portion of
this forecast. A series of short wave troughs will amplify off the
southern California coast, eventually pinching off a low over the
Great Basin Sunday while the upper low over the southeastern CONUS
opens and becomes integrated into the mean flow over the eastern
CONUS. After this low ejects northeastward across the central High
Plains Sunday night, another stronger low reloads over the Great
Basin Tuesday.  The upshot will be increased southwesterly flow 
aloft Saturday and particularly Sunday, where windy conditions are
possible across much of west Texas and southeastern New Mexico. 
Temperatures will be above normal Friday through this weekend, 
and while things will be a bit cooler Sunday due to lowered 
thicknesses, a downslope wind component, deep layer mixing, and 
minimum RH readings below 20 percent would imply an increased fire
weather concern from Eddy and Lea counties of NM south across the
upper Trans Pecos and Davis Mountains regions of west Texas. 
Would not at all be surprised to see high wind highlights issued 
in later packages for the Guadalupe Mountains. A cold front will 
then translate across the southern High Plains Sunday night, 
knocking temperatures back down a little Monday before a return of
southerly flow at the surface and southwesterly flow aloft return
to the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Given meager moisture and 
less in the way of large scale adiabatic ascent and mesoscale foci
for convection, this forecast will remain dry through the middle 
of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               61  93  65  93 /   0   0   0   0 
Carlsbad                 56  92  58  94 /   0   0   0   0 
Dryden                   63  92  64  93 /   0   0   0   0 
Fort Stockton            63  93  64  95 /   0   0   0   0 
Guadalupe Pass           61  82  62  84 /  10   0   0   0 
Hobbs                    57  90  59  91 /   0   0   0   0 
Marfa                    49  86  52  88 /  10   0   0   0 
Midland Intl Airport     61  92  63  93 /   0   0   0   0 
Odessa                   62  93  64  93 /   0   0   0   0 
Wink                     61  95  62  97 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...87