200 FXUS64 KMAF 062006 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 306 PM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 VFR conditions will continue at all terminals next 24 hrs. Generally CLR with passing cirrus and mid-level stratus, generally over SE NM terminals this PM. Few to sct cu over KCNM possible after 20z, dissipating after sunset. Winds will shift SE everywhere and hold steady at KFST/KMAF due to weak LLJ. Some variability elsewhere after 09z. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 A benign forecast is exactly what we're going to see over the next 1.5 days with little in the way of impactful weather on the horizon. The region is still encompassed by ridging with above avg heights nestled overhead. This has allowed our temps to remain 5-10 degrees above where we normally stand this part of October. No relief in sight as our upper low over the Mississippi Valley will begin to move NE and breakdown heading into the end of the week. This will allow for heights to rise even further and ridging to put a stranglehold over the southern plains. Highs in the U80s to 90s will be prominent for Thursday with lows still just slightly above normal areawide thanks to drier air and decent radiational cooling. The only precip threat will be today at the most marginal level possible as a weak shortwave passes over Chihuahua and some elevated storms might pass through the Presidio Valley and northern Rio Grande. It's certainly nothing over the top with max PoPs around 15-20%, although compared to tomorrow's setup where any convective threat is dead in the water, it's something. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 Upper level ridging will persist through the long term portion of this forecast. A series of short wave troughs will amplify off the southern California coast, eventually pinching off a low over the Great Basin Sunday while the upper low over the southeastern CONUS opens and becomes integrated into the mean flow over the eastern CONUS. After this low ejects northeastward across the central High Plains Sunday night, another stronger low reloads over the Great Basin Tuesday. The upshot will be increased southwesterly flow aloft Saturday and particularly Sunday, where windy conditions are possible across much of west Texas and southeastern New Mexico. Temperatures will be above normal Friday through this weekend, and while things will be a bit cooler Sunday due to lowered thicknesses, a downslope wind component, deep layer mixing, and minimum RH readings below 20 percent would imply an increased fire weather concern from Eddy and Lea counties of NM south across the upper Trans Pecos and Davis Mountains regions of west Texas. Would not at all be surprised to see high wind highlights issued in later packages for the Guadalupe Mountains. A cold front will then translate across the southern High Plains Sunday night, knocking temperatures back down a little Monday before a return of southerly flow at the surface and southwesterly flow aloft return to the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Given meager moisture and less in the way of large scale adiabatic ascent and mesoscale foci for convection, this forecast will remain dry through the middle of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 61 93 65 93 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 56 92 58 94 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 63 92 64 93 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 63 93 64 95 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 61 82 62 84 / 10 0 0 0 Hobbs 57 90 59 91 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 49 86 52 88 / 10 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 61 92 63 93 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 62 93 64 93 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 61 95 62 97 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...87 LONG TERM....70 AVIATION...87