478 
FXUS63 KGID 061755
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1255 PM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021

Dry conditions remain anchored over the area early this morning,
and outside of a few clouds clipping far eastern portions of the
CWA at times, skies so far tonight have been clear. Aloft, upper 
air and satellite data show a sharp ridge axis extending north 
from eastern NM through western NE, pinched between a large area 
of low pressure spinning over AR and another more compact 
disturbance pushing north out of AZ. At the sfc, a ridge axis 
draped through the area from high pressure over the Great Lakes 
continues to keep winds light early this morning...generally 
southeasterly if not outright calm. Some models continue to show 
the potential for some patchy fog around sunrise across eastern 
portions of the CWA, so will keep that mention going in the 
forecast. 

Today through Friday...

The forecast remains dry through this time frame, and models are
in good agreement with that. Today/tonight, the upper level 
pattern continues to be driven by the two above mentioned systems 
to our SE and SW...causing flow to be lighter and on the variable 
side at times. These systems continue pushing east through the end
of the work week, with ridging building back north into the area 
through the day on Thursday into Friday. More southwesterly flow 
develops late in the day Friday/Friday night, as the next system 
of interest makes its way in from the West Coast. Not expecting 
precipitation from these disturbances, but a bit more cloud cover 
is forecast. Today could be quite a gradient in sky cover, with 
clear skies in the west, and more cloud cover from the ESE pushing
west into our eastern areas (mainly east of HWY 281). Thurs/Fri 
looks to have the potential for more of the CWA to be affected by 
passing clouds. 

At the sfc, the ridge axis currently in place through the Central 
Plains is expected to push east with time today, while a trough of
low pressure deepens over the High Plains. As a result, winds 
today will turn more SSE, with higher speeds across the western 
half of the CWA. Speeds of 15-20 MPH expected for that western 
half, with gusts near 25 MPH, while speeds closer to 10-15 MPH are
expected for the east. Little change in the pattern for 
Thursday/Friday, southerly winds continue, through that sfc trough
axis is creeping a bit further east. More of the area could have 
speeds in that 15-20 MPH range for Thursday, likely a touch 
lighter for Friday.

Didn't make any notable changes to forecast highs Wed-Fri, with a 
gradual warming trend each day as that ridging builds back in from 
the south. Have today as the overall 'coolest' day of the 3, with 
highs in the mid 70s. Expecting a couple degrees warmer for 
Thursday, with lower-mid 80s forecast for Friday. 

This weekend through Tuesday...

Still plenty of details to iron out through this period, with 
exactly how the upper level pattern evolves and the resulting 
precipitation chances. During the day on Saturday, models show the 
upper level trough continuing to push east through the Rockies, 
with the development of two separate pieces of energy. At 00Z Sun,
agreement isn't too bad, showing one system moving into the 
Dakotas, the other near the Four Corners region. Still have some 
slight chances PoPs in the forecast for Saturday night/early 
Sunday morning, but there continue to be differences between 
models with whether they mainly affect northern portions of the 
CWA or the south. As we get further into Sunday and then Monday, 
that northern stream system pushes northeast into the Great 
Lakes/Ontario region, with focus then turning to that southern 
stream system. The 00Z of the GFS/ECMWF both show the development 
of a more compact vort max, in the vicinity of the TX/OK panhandle
area Sunday evening, pushing ENE/NE across KS during the 
overnight hours/early Monday morning. Exactly how much of a 
northeasterly track this system takes will play a big part in how 
much precip the CWA sees. The ECMWF takes a sharper NErly turn, 
bringing a more widespread swath of heavier QPF as the low tracks 
from south central KS into southeastern NW. The GFS takes a more 
easterly track/later turn to the NE, leaving all but the far SSE 
portions of the CWA dry. 

Have a dry period in the forecast Monday night into at least part
of the day Tuesday as the area sits under upper level shortwave 
ridging between this departing system and the next. Models show a 
larger upper level low digging into the Desert SW, before swinging
NNE through the western Central Plains and into the Dakotas. This
has the potential to bring another decent chance of more 
widespread precip to the CWA, but hard to have much confidence in 
a system that far out...a lot can change.

Forecast highs for Saturday are a bit tricky, expecting there to
be good warming ahead of the approaching sfc trough/cold front. 
Confidence is not high in the timing. Highs for Saturday currently
range from the upper 70s in the NW to upper 80s in the SE. Will 
have to keep an eye on trends for near-critical fire wx 
conditions, mainly across the southern half of the CWA. Have RH 
values falling into the low-mid 20 percent range, and there is the
potential for gusty winds, but it will be driven by the timing of
sfc features moving into the area. Cooler temps are expected 
Sun/Mon behind the cold frontal passage, with highs in the upper 
60s-low 70s Sunday and low-mid 70s for Monday. Highs for Tuesday 
are currently in the mid 70s, but will be dependent on the timing 
of that next approaching upper level system.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Thursday)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021

VFR conditions are forecast. Could have a bit of a gust this
afternoon from increases low-level lapse rates, but should become
lighter by sunset. Visibility does not look like an issue as it
did for a short time this morning with patchy, shallow fog.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Heinlein