478 FXUS63 KGID 061755 AFDGID AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Hastings NE 1255 PM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 .DISCUSSION...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 339 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 Dry conditions remain anchored over the area early this morning, and outside of a few clouds clipping far eastern portions of the CWA at times, skies so far tonight have been clear. Aloft, upper air and satellite data show a sharp ridge axis extending north from eastern NM through western NE, pinched between a large area of low pressure spinning over AR and another more compact disturbance pushing north out of AZ. At the sfc, a ridge axis draped through the area from high pressure over the Great Lakes continues to keep winds light early this morning...generally southeasterly if not outright calm. Some models continue to show the potential for some patchy fog around sunrise across eastern portions of the CWA, so will keep that mention going in the forecast. Today through Friday... The forecast remains dry through this time frame, and models are in good agreement with that. Today/tonight, the upper level pattern continues to be driven by the two above mentioned systems to our SE and SW...causing flow to be lighter and on the variable side at times. These systems continue pushing east through the end of the work week, with ridging building back north into the area through the day on Thursday into Friday. More southwesterly flow develops late in the day Friday/Friday night, as the next system of interest makes its way in from the West Coast. Not expecting precipitation from these disturbances, but a bit more cloud cover is forecast. Today could be quite a gradient in sky cover, with clear skies in the west, and more cloud cover from the ESE pushing west into our eastern areas (mainly east of HWY 281). Thurs/Fri looks to have the potential for more of the CWA to be affected by passing clouds. At the sfc, the ridge axis currently in place through the Central Plains is expected to push east with time today, while a trough of low pressure deepens over the High Plains. As a result, winds today will turn more SSE, with higher speeds across the western half of the CWA. Speeds of 15-20 MPH expected for that western half, with gusts near 25 MPH, while speeds closer to 10-15 MPH are expected for the east. Little change in the pattern for Thursday/Friday, southerly winds continue, through that sfc trough axis is creeping a bit further east. More of the area could have speeds in that 15-20 MPH range for Thursday, likely a touch lighter for Friday. Didn't make any notable changes to forecast highs Wed-Fri, with a gradual warming trend each day as that ridging builds back in from the south. Have today as the overall 'coolest' day of the 3, with highs in the mid 70s. Expecting a couple degrees warmer for Thursday, with lower-mid 80s forecast for Friday. This weekend through Tuesday... Still plenty of details to iron out through this period, with exactly how the upper level pattern evolves and the resulting precipitation chances. During the day on Saturday, models show the upper level trough continuing to push east through the Rockies, with the development of two separate pieces of energy. At 00Z Sun, agreement isn't too bad, showing one system moving into the Dakotas, the other near the Four Corners region. Still have some slight chances PoPs in the forecast for Saturday night/early Sunday morning, but there continue to be differences between models with whether they mainly affect northern portions of the CWA or the south. As we get further into Sunday and then Monday, that northern stream system pushes northeast into the Great Lakes/Ontario region, with focus then turning to that southern stream system. The 00Z of the GFS/ECMWF both show the development of a more compact vort max, in the vicinity of the TX/OK panhandle area Sunday evening, pushing ENE/NE across KS during the overnight hours/early Monday morning. Exactly how much of a northeasterly track this system takes will play a big part in how much precip the CWA sees. The ECMWF takes a sharper NErly turn, bringing a more widespread swath of heavier QPF as the low tracks from south central KS into southeastern NW. The GFS takes a more easterly track/later turn to the NE, leaving all but the far SSE portions of the CWA dry. Have a dry period in the forecast Monday night into at least part of the day Tuesday as the area sits under upper level shortwave ridging between this departing system and the next. Models show a larger upper level low digging into the Desert SW, before swinging NNE through the western Central Plains and into the Dakotas. This has the potential to bring another decent chance of more widespread precip to the CWA, but hard to have much confidence in a system that far out...a lot can change. Forecast highs for Saturday are a bit tricky, expecting there to be good warming ahead of the approaching sfc trough/cold front. Confidence is not high in the timing. Highs for Saturday currently range from the upper 70s in the NW to upper 80s in the SE. Will have to keep an eye on trends for near-critical fire wx conditions, mainly across the southern half of the CWA. Have RH values falling into the low-mid 20 percent range, and there is the potential for gusty winds, but it will be driven by the timing of sfc features moving into the area. Cooler temps are expected Sun/Mon behind the cold frontal passage, with highs in the upper 60s-low 70s Sunday and low-mid 70s for Monday. Highs for Tuesday are currently in the mid 70s, but will be dependent on the timing of that next approaching upper level system. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Thursday) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 VFR conditions are forecast. Could have a bit of a gust this afternoon from increases low-level lapse rates, but should become lighter by sunset. Visibility does not look like an issue as it did for a short time this morning with patchy, shallow fog. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADP AVIATION...Heinlein