343 
FXUS61 KBUF 060828
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
428 AM EDT Wed Oct 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
While strong high pressure will remain centered to our north
through Thursday night, clouds will be slow to clear across the
region. Dry weather will persist into Friday before rain 
chances return Friday evening. Temperatures will be above 
average, feeling more typical of early September.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A Rex block over the center of the country will maintain expansive 
high pressure that will be centered over Quebec through tonight, 
promoting calm and dry weather. Today will mark the beginning of a 
long stretch of days with above normal temperatures, with highs 
expected to reach the low to mid 70s across the area. Temps will be 
a bit cooler on the Tug Hill in the mid/upper 60s.

With residual moisture still trapped in the low levels, expect areas 
of low stratus and patchy fog through the mid morning hours. Better 
chances for more widespread clearing should develop thereafter, 
before clouds return again tonight. Overnight lows will settle in 
the mid to upper 50s south of Lake Ontario, but may dip into the 
upper 40s across the North Country where less cloud cover will 
promote greater radiational cooling.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday and Thursday night a narrow upper level ridge will remain 
overhead, with surface high pressure in place from Quebec to New 
England. This will generally keep fair and dry weather in place 
across the majority of the region. The one exception may be across 
Chautauqua County. A mid level closed low will move slowly from the 
mid Mississippi Valley Thursday to near southern Lake Michigan by 
late Thursday night. A plume of moisture embedded in southerly flow 
ahead of this feature will be located just west of our area, and a 
few showers may clip Chautauqua County at times. 

Friday and Friday night the closed low will begin to open up into a 
wave as it starts to re-engage with the westerlies over the central 
Great Lakes. The plume of deep moisture downstream of the trough 
will gradually move east into our area. Shower chances will increase 
Friday afternoon west of the Genesee Valley, with showers then 
spreading east into the Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes 
later Friday night. The eastern Lake Ontario region will remain dry 
through late Friday night in closer proximity to high pressure over 
New England.

Temperatures will trend well above normal through the end of the 
week. Highs will reach well into the 70s across lower elevations 
both Thursday and Friday, with a few upper 70s readings likely 
across Western NY and the Genesee Valley. A northeast wind will keep 
the south shore of Lake Ontario cooler both days.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Showers associated with a mid and upper level trough will expand 
eastward into Saturday. Shower potential for Saturday will continue 
to support high chance POPs for areas south of Lake Ontario, with 
POPs diminishing some further east. Showers will diminish in 
coverage and track out of the area later Saturday night as the 
trough shifts northeast into Canada. 

Another trough and sfc low will track just north of the area on 
Sunday evening, possibly causing some showers as far south as the 
Niagara Frontier. Some guidance is suggesting a weak warm front 
tracking through the area as well, which would increase the 
potential for showers. 

Generally dry conditions though otherwise until Tuesday night when a 
sfc low and trough approach WNY increasing the chance for showers 
into Wednesday morning. 

Warm temperatures will continue to be the primary weather story as 
high temps are expected to be around 10 degrees or more above normal 
for most of the area. Highs in the low 60s to mid 70s over the 
weekend will warm a bit more to the mid 60s and upper 70s by early 
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Areas of low stratus with low MVFR/IFR CIGS found across much of the 
area this morning. Lowering vsbys with fog may develop under 
any breaks in the cloud cover. Patchy fog has also developed 
across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region.

Conditions will begin to improve to mainly VFR later this morning, 
with VFR/MVFR expected later tonight.

Outlook... 
Thursday...Mainly VFR.
Friday...MVFR/VFR with shower chances increasing from west to east.
Saturday...MVFR with scattered showers.
Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Northeast to east winds below 15 knots expected through tonight. 
Small craft headlines are not anticipated, though choppy conditions 
will remain from the Niagara River to Sodus Bay along Lake Ontario 
and south of Dunkirk along Lake Erie before subsiding tonight.

Northeast to east winds less than 20 knots are expected on the lower 
Great Lakes through the end of the week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PP/RSH
NEAR TERM...PP
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...PP
MARINE...PP