343 FXUS61 KBUF 060828 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 428 AM EDT Wed Oct 6 2021 .SYNOPSIS... While strong high pressure will remain centered to our north through Thursday night, clouds will be slow to clear across the region. Dry weather will persist into Friday before rain chances return Friday evening. Temperatures will be above average, feeling more typical of early September. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A Rex block over the center of the country will maintain expansive high pressure that will be centered over Quebec through tonight, promoting calm and dry weather. Today will mark the beginning of a long stretch of days with above normal temperatures, with highs expected to reach the low to mid 70s across the area. Temps will be a bit cooler on the Tug Hill in the mid/upper 60s. With residual moisture still trapped in the low levels, expect areas of low stratus and patchy fog through the mid morning hours. Better chances for more widespread clearing should develop thereafter, before clouds return again tonight. Overnight lows will settle in the mid to upper 50s south of Lake Ontario, but may dip into the upper 40s across the North Country where less cloud cover will promote greater radiational cooling. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Thursday and Thursday night a narrow upper level ridge will remain overhead, with surface high pressure in place from Quebec to New England. This will generally keep fair and dry weather in place across the majority of the region. The one exception may be across Chautauqua County. A mid level closed low will move slowly from the mid Mississippi Valley Thursday to near southern Lake Michigan by late Thursday night. A plume of moisture embedded in southerly flow ahead of this feature will be located just west of our area, and a few showers may clip Chautauqua County at times. Friday and Friday night the closed low will begin to open up into a wave as it starts to re-engage with the westerlies over the central Great Lakes. The plume of deep moisture downstream of the trough will gradually move east into our area. Shower chances will increase Friday afternoon west of the Genesee Valley, with showers then spreading east into the Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes later Friday night. The eastern Lake Ontario region will remain dry through late Friday night in closer proximity to high pressure over New England. Temperatures will trend well above normal through the end of the week. Highs will reach well into the 70s across lower elevations both Thursday and Friday, with a few upper 70s readings likely across Western NY and the Genesee Valley. A northeast wind will keep the south shore of Lake Ontario cooler both days. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Showers associated with a mid and upper level trough will expand eastward into Saturday. Shower potential for Saturday will continue to support high chance POPs for areas south of Lake Ontario, with POPs diminishing some further east. Showers will diminish in coverage and track out of the area later Saturday night as the trough shifts northeast into Canada. Another trough and sfc low will track just north of the area on Sunday evening, possibly causing some showers as far south as the Niagara Frontier. Some guidance is suggesting a weak warm front tracking through the area as well, which would increase the potential for showers. Generally dry conditions though otherwise until Tuesday night when a sfc low and trough approach WNY increasing the chance for showers into Wednesday morning. Warm temperatures will continue to be the primary weather story as high temps are expected to be around 10 degrees or more above normal for most of the area. Highs in the low 60s to mid 70s over the weekend will warm a bit more to the mid 60s and upper 70s by early next week. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Areas of low stratus with low MVFR/IFR CIGS found across much of the area this morning. Lowering vsbys with fog may develop under any breaks in the cloud cover. Patchy fog has also developed across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region. Conditions will begin to improve to mainly VFR later this morning, with VFR/MVFR expected later tonight. Outlook... Thursday...Mainly VFR. Friday...MVFR/VFR with shower chances increasing from west to east. Saturday...MVFR with scattered showers. Sunday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Northeast to east winds below 15 knots expected through tonight. Small craft headlines are not anticipated, though choppy conditions will remain from the Niagara River to Sodus Bay along Lake Ontario and south of Dunkirk along Lake Erie before subsiding tonight. Northeast to east winds less than 20 knots are expected on the lower Great Lakes through the end of the week. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PP/RSH NEAR TERM...PP SHORT TERM...Hitchcock LONG TERM...SW AVIATION...PP MARINE...PP