AFOS product AFDDDC
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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDDDC
Product Timestamp: 2021-10-06 05:46 UTC

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274 
FXUS63 KDDC 060546
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1246 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021

...Updated Short Term and Aviation Sections...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021

A mid-tropospheric "squeeze play" will be occurring today as an 
upper disturbance across western Arizona overnight lifts northeast
through Utah and into Wyoming by evening. Meanwhile, a cutoff 
upper low will continue across the lower Mississippi Valley region
and actually retrograde back northwest slightly today. This 
retrogression back to the northwest may lead to slightly cooler 
temperatures than previously forecast across the eastern counties 
where surface winds will have more of an easterly component. It 
may not get much above the 75-77F range, particularly across 
Stafford and Pratt county, although we should still see direct 
insolation to help warm things up to the upper 70s for highs out 
east while most everyone else should still max out in the lower 
80s for highs. 

Tonight into Thursday, the narrow mid-tropospheric ridge axis will 
finally break down as we see westerly momentum "break through" the 
pattern across the Colorado Rockies into the High Plains. This will 
mark the beginning of a longer term pattern transition favoring 
leeside low pressure and a return to our southerly winds. Southeast 
winds tonight will likely be in the 10 to 15 mph range much of the 
overnight period, thus lows early Thursday morning will be in the 55 
to 60F range most locations. This will give us a little bit of a 
jump start into warmer temperatures for Thursday. Many of the models 
show a weak surface circulation developing along the leeside trough 
on Thursday, and areas south and east of this subtle surface low 
should easily reach if not exceed mid 80s for highs (which would be 
most of the DDC CWA). A few of the CAMs even suggest some 90+ 
afternoon temperatures along the Oklahoma border, but for now we 
will be carrying upper 80s right along the border Thursday
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021

The start of the long term will bring warmer air to southwest
Kansas on Thursday as the upper level flow turns more zonal and
the winds near the surface turn more to the southwest. Highs on
Thursday should make it into the middle 80s.

The warming trend continues for Friday and Saturday with
increasing fire concerns especially on Saturday and also the
potential for record highs. Area grasslands and burn indexes
already indicate the fuels are cured and with increasing winds and
lower relative humidity values we could see red flag conditions
especially for areas along and south of highway 50. Both Euro and
GFS models are suggesting greater compressional heating ahead of a
strong cold front on Saturday so kept the persistent trend of a
NBM/NBM90th combo for high temperatures which gives us lower 90s
for most of the region. Also increased winds to the NBM90th which
would give us 15-25 kt winds with gusts to around 30 kts.  

For Sunday and early next week both long term models are still
suggesting a good cool down but the trough looks to be quicker and
more progressive and with that hints of a lesser amount of time
for rain potential and lighter amounts. Decided to keep NBM precip
for now which is 20-30% and mainly rain as the precip would be on
the cool side of the front. By mid next week a more impressive
upper level low is still showing up but what that will mean for
our area is still well up in the air.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021

Aviation weather will continue to be very good with ongoing VFR 
flight category. The persistent light winds will finally pick up in 
speed just a bit later on today as south-southeast wind speeds are 
expected to be in the 12 to 15 knot range. The leeside trough 
responsible for the increased pressure gradient will continue 
through the evening up until the end of this TAF period, keeping 
southeast winds at or above 12 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  49  82  54  86 /   0   0   0   0 
GCK  47  81  54  84 /   0   0   0   0 
EHA  48  82  54  86 /   0   0   0   0 
LBL  46  82  54  87 /   0   0   0   0 
HYS  48  79  52  82 /   0   0   0   0 
P28  52  80  53  84 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Umscheid