274 FXUS63 KDDC 060546 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1246 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 ...Updated Short Term and Aviation Sections... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 1244 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 A mid-tropospheric "squeeze play" will be occurring today as an upper disturbance across western Arizona overnight lifts northeast through Utah and into Wyoming by evening. Meanwhile, a cutoff upper low will continue across the lower Mississippi Valley region and actually retrograde back northwest slightly today. This retrogression back to the northwest may lead to slightly cooler temperatures than previously forecast across the eastern counties where surface winds will have more of an easterly component. It may not get much above the 75-77F range, particularly across Stafford and Pratt county, although we should still see direct insolation to help warm things up to the upper 70s for highs out east while most everyone else should still max out in the lower 80s for highs. Tonight into Thursday, the narrow mid-tropospheric ridge axis will finally break down as we see westerly momentum "break through" the pattern across the Colorado Rockies into the High Plains. This will mark the beginning of a longer term pattern transition favoring leeside low pressure and a return to our southerly winds. Southeast winds tonight will likely be in the 10 to 15 mph range much of the overnight period, thus lows early Thursday morning will be in the 55 to 60F range most locations. This will give us a little bit of a jump start into warmer temperatures for Thursday. Many of the models show a weak surface circulation developing along the leeside trough on Thursday, and areas south and east of this subtle surface low should easily reach if not exceed mid 80s for highs (which would be most of the DDC CWA). A few of the CAMs even suggest some 90+ afternoon temperatures along the Oklahoma border, but for now we will be carrying upper 80s right along the border Thursday afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 153 PM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021 The start of the long term will bring warmer air to southwest Kansas on Thursday as the upper level flow turns more zonal and the winds near the surface turn more to the southwest. Highs on Thursday should make it into the middle 80s. The warming trend continues for Friday and Saturday with increasing fire concerns especially on Saturday and also the potential for record highs. Area grasslands and burn indexes already indicate the fuels are cured and with increasing winds and lower relative humidity values we could see red flag conditions especially for areas along and south of highway 50. Both Euro and GFS models are suggesting greater compressional heating ahead of a strong cold front on Saturday so kept the persistent trend of a NBM/NBM90th combo for high temperatures which gives us lower 90s for most of the region. Also increased winds to the NBM90th which would give us 15-25 kt winds with gusts to around 30 kts. For Sunday and early next week both long term models are still suggesting a good cool down but the trough looks to be quicker and more progressive and with that hints of a lesser amount of time for rain potential and lighter amounts. Decided to keep NBM precip for now which is 20-30% and mainly rain as the precip would be on the cool side of the front. By mid next week a more impressive upper level low is still showing up but what that will mean for our area is still well up in the air. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1244 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 Aviation weather will continue to be very good with ongoing VFR flight category. The persistent light winds will finally pick up in speed just a bit later on today as south-southeast wind speeds are expected to be in the 12 to 15 knot range. The leeside trough responsible for the increased pressure gradient will continue through the evening up until the end of this TAF period, keeping southeast winds at or above 12 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 49 82 54 86 / 0 0 0 0 GCK 47 81 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 EHA 48 82 54 86 / 0 0 0 0 LBL 46 82 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 HYS 48 79 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 P28 52 80 53 84 / 0 0 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Umscheid LONG TERM...Tatro AVIATION...Umscheid