199 
FXUS61 KBUF 060235
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1035 PM EDT Tue Oct 5 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
While strong high pressure will remain centered to our north for 
much of the week, clouds will be slow to clear across the region. 
This stagnate pattern will favor dry weather for the next several 
days with temperatures more typical of early September.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A Rex block developing over the center of the country will maintain 
expansive high pressure that will be centered over Quebec for the 
next few days. This will promote fair dry weather through this 
period, although a saturated airmass will be slow to 'dry out'. 

BUF sounding this evening has showed more dry air aloft above H85 
compared to last couple days. This dry air has allowed some breaks 
in the cloud cover this evening in corridor from Buffalo to 
Rochester. Since there is still some low-level moisture in place 
will not bank on this clearing persisting through the night, but 
instead expect cloud cover to be variable. Better chances for more 
widespread and longer lasting clearing should develop later on 
Wednesday.

Temperatures through Wednesday night will average 5 to 10 degrees 
above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Through this period a closed low will slowly drift northward from 
the mid Mississippi Valley to the Central Great Lakes as it nears 
the cresting point of an established upper level ridge of high 
pressure. Surface high pressure will begin the period over our 
region...slowly drifting towards New England and along the Atlantic 
coastline. 

This surface high will maintain fair weather over our region 
Thursday, with a mix of clouds and sunshine. 

Clouds will thicken Friday, and as the upper level low and moisture 
transport nears our region, chances for rain showers will begin to 
increase across WNY. The rain showers will be slow to push eastward 
in this amplified pattern...with rain likely to remain west of the 
Genesee Valley Friday and west of the North Country through Friday 
Night.  

Temperatures at 850 hPa gain a degree Friday over Thursday, but the 
increased clouds will likely keep similar highs in the low to mid 
70s for both Thursday and Friday. Thursday night will be chilly east 
of Lake Ontario before the clouds thicken...with temperatures 
quickly cooling down into the 40s with initial clear skies and 
light winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Main theme during the long term period will be the continuation of 
the well above normal warmth during this second week of October.

Ridging surface and aloft will be located over New England to open 
the period. Clockwise flow around the surface high over the 
Gulf of Maine will allow for a moist southeasterly low level 
flow to become established across the forecast area, while a 
rapidly weakening mid/upper level shortwave moves northeastward 
through the western Great Lakes. The southern edge of the better
dynamics associated with the shortwave energy will just graze 
our forecast area. This combined with ample available moisture 
will bring the best rain chances (high Chc PoPs) of this period 
on Saturday.

Model consensus has trended decidedly drier for the second half of 
the weekend into the start of the new work week as ridging tries to 
reestablish itself over the lower Great Lakes. Have settled on 
mainly SChc PoPs across our region for Sunday through Tuesday, as 
there is some discrepancy on just how close a frontal system off to 
the west and low pressure moving northeast along the Atlantic 
Seaboard can get to western and northcentral NY with high pressure 
sandwiched right in between the two.

Otherwise as eluded to above, expect well above average temperatures 
to continue, with daytime highs mainly ranging from the upper 60s to 
mid 70s right through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry air aloft resulted in some clearing this evening from BUF and 
IAG to ROC. Expect sky cover to become more variable overnight with 
intervals of clouds and clear skies trending toward more clouds.
Where there are clouds, expect mainly MVFR CIGS, though IFR will 
occur at times across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes.  

Outlook... 
Wednesday and Thursday...Improving to VFR.
Friday...MVFR/VFR with shower chances increasing from west to east.
Saturday...MVFR with scattered showers.
Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Northeasterlies will continue tonight, but should remain at 15 knots 
or less. Though small craft headlines are not anticipated, choppy 
conditions will remain from the Niagara River to Sodus Bay along 
Lake Ontario and south of Dunkirk along Lake Erie.

Northeast to east winds less than 20 knots are expected on the lower 
Great Lakes through the end of the week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...JLA/RSH
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JLA/RSH
MARINE...PP