199 FXUS61 KBUF 060235 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1035 PM EDT Tue Oct 5 2021 .SYNOPSIS... While strong high pressure will remain centered to our north for much of the week, clouds will be slow to clear across the region. This stagnate pattern will favor dry weather for the next several days with temperatures more typical of early September. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A Rex block developing over the center of the country will maintain expansive high pressure that will be centered over Quebec for the next few days. This will promote fair dry weather through this period, although a saturated airmass will be slow to 'dry out'. BUF sounding this evening has showed more dry air aloft above H85 compared to last couple days. This dry air has allowed some breaks in the cloud cover this evening in corridor from Buffalo to Rochester. Since there is still some low-level moisture in place will not bank on this clearing persisting through the night, but instead expect cloud cover to be variable. Better chances for more widespread and longer lasting clearing should develop later on Wednesday. Temperatures through Wednesday night will average 5 to 10 degrees above normal. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Through this period a closed low will slowly drift northward from the mid Mississippi Valley to the Central Great Lakes as it nears the cresting point of an established upper level ridge of high pressure. Surface high pressure will begin the period over our region...slowly drifting towards New England and along the Atlantic coastline. This surface high will maintain fair weather over our region Thursday, with a mix of clouds and sunshine. Clouds will thicken Friday, and as the upper level low and moisture transport nears our region, chances for rain showers will begin to increase across WNY. The rain showers will be slow to push eastward in this amplified pattern...with rain likely to remain west of the Genesee Valley Friday and west of the North Country through Friday Night. Temperatures at 850 hPa gain a degree Friday over Thursday, but the increased clouds will likely keep similar highs in the low to mid 70s for both Thursday and Friday. Thursday night will be chilly east of Lake Ontario before the clouds thicken...with temperatures quickly cooling down into the 40s with initial clear skies and light winds. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Main theme during the long term period will be the continuation of the well above normal warmth during this second week of October. Ridging surface and aloft will be located over New England to open the period. Clockwise flow around the surface high over the Gulf of Maine will allow for a moist southeasterly low level flow to become established across the forecast area, while a rapidly weakening mid/upper level shortwave moves northeastward through the western Great Lakes. The southern edge of the better dynamics associated with the shortwave energy will just graze our forecast area. This combined with ample available moisture will bring the best rain chances (high Chc PoPs) of this period on Saturday. Model consensus has trended decidedly drier for the second half of the weekend into the start of the new work week as ridging tries to reestablish itself over the lower Great Lakes. Have settled on mainly SChc PoPs across our region for Sunday through Tuesday, as there is some discrepancy on just how close a frontal system off to the west and low pressure moving northeast along the Atlantic Seaboard can get to western and northcentral NY with high pressure sandwiched right in between the two. Otherwise as eluded to above, expect well above average temperatures to continue, with daytime highs mainly ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s right through the period. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Dry air aloft resulted in some clearing this evening from BUF and IAG to ROC. Expect sky cover to become more variable overnight with intervals of clouds and clear skies trending toward more clouds. Where there are clouds, expect mainly MVFR CIGS, though IFR will occur at times across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. Outlook... Wednesday and Thursday...Improving to VFR. Friday...MVFR/VFR with shower chances increasing from west to east. Saturday...MVFR with scattered showers. Sunday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Northeasterlies will continue tonight, but should remain at 15 knots or less. Though small craft headlines are not anticipated, choppy conditions will remain from the Niagara River to Sodus Bay along Lake Ontario and south of Dunkirk along Lake Erie. Northeast to east winds less than 20 knots are expected on the lower Great Lakes through the end of the week. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RSH NEAR TERM...JLA/RSH SHORT TERM...Thomas LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...JLA/RSH MARINE...PP