National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDMAF
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDMAF
Product Timestamp: 2021-10-02 11:27 UTC
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822 FXUS64 KMAF 021127 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 627 AM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021 ...New AVIATION... See 12z aviation discussion below. .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 618 AM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021 Low ceilings will continue through much of the morning. VFR conditions are expected this afternoon. Winds will be light and variable. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 235 AM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021 An upper trough is centered over the Central/Southern Plains with West Texas and Southeast New Mexico at the base of the trough. Light winds are across the area along with some showers and isolated thunderstorms. Dewpoint depressions are small so patchy fog is a possibility this morning. Temperatures today will warm up a bit from yesterday as skies clear with highs mostly in the 80s expected. Lingering rain and storm chances continue today across portions of the Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, Davis Mountains, and Big Bend area. Low temperatures tonight will mostly be in the 50s and 60s. The previously mentioned upper trough moves eastward on Sunday and expands to include the Midwest region. Temperatures on Sunday may warm a degree or two from today but no precipitation is expected. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 235 AM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021 Surface ridging Mon AM will give way to pressure falls Mon PM with temps only couple degrees warmer than Sun and will rise back to above normal. Deterministic models have come into better agreement Tue with amplified mid-level ridging overhead nudging high temps farther into above normal territory (about 2-4 degrees above normal in most areas). Little change in the thermal profile below 7h on Wed PM and thus little change in high temps. More noticeable changes occur Thu-Fri and into the weekend as broad mid-level ridging serves to warm the PBL with high temps 6-10 degrees above normal. Positive temps departures are favored to be even larger Sat when the low- level thermal ridge moves farther e with increased westerly flow aloft. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 82 59 83 58 / 20 10 0 0 Carlsbad 81 55 82 57 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 82 67 85 65 / 20 10 10 0 Fort Stockton 82 60 84 60 / 10 10 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 73 57 75 59 / 0 0 0 10 Hobbs 80 53 82 56 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 79 53 79 52 / 20 10 10 10 Midland Intl Airport 82 58 83 59 / 20 10 0 0 Odessa 82 59 84 60 / 20 10 0 0 Wink 84 58 86 60 / 0 10 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...80 LONG TERM....49 AVIATION...80