822 
FXUS64 KMAF 021127
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
627 AM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021

...New AVIATION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021

Low ceilings will continue through much of the morning. VFR
conditions are expected this afternoon. Winds will be light and
variable. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021

An upper trough is centered over the Central/Southern Plains with 
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico at the base of the trough. 
Light winds are across the area along with some showers and 
isolated thunderstorms. Dewpoint depressions are small so patchy 
fog is a possibility this morning. Temperatures today will warm up
a bit from yesterday as skies clear with highs mostly in the 80s 
expected. Lingering rain and storm chances continue today across 
portions of the Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, Davis Mountains,
and Big Bend area. Low temperatures tonight will mostly be in the
50s and 60s. The previously mentioned upper trough moves eastward
on Sunday and expands to include the Midwest region. Temperatures
on Sunday may warm a degree or two from today but no precipitation
is expected. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021

Surface ridging Mon AM will give way to pressure falls Mon PM with 
temps only couple degrees warmer than Sun and will rise back to 
above normal. Deterministic models have come into better agreement 
Tue with amplified mid-level ridging overhead nudging high temps 
farther into above normal territory (about 2-4 degrees above normal 
in most areas). Little change in the thermal profile below 7h on Wed 
PM and thus little change in high temps. More noticeable changes 
occur Thu-Fri and into the weekend as broad mid-level ridging serves 
to warm the PBL with high temps 6-10 degrees above normal. Positive 
temps departures are favored to be even larger Sat when the low-
level thermal ridge moves farther e with increased westerly flow 
aloft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               82  59  83  58 /  20  10   0   0 
Carlsbad                 81  55  82  57 /   0   0   0   0 
Dryden                   82  67  85  65 /  20  10  10   0 
Fort Stockton            82  60  84  60 /  10  10  10   0 
Guadalupe Pass           73  57  75  59 /   0   0   0  10 
Hobbs                    80  53  82  56 /   0   0   0   0 
Marfa                    79  53  79  52 /  20  10  10  10 
Midland Intl Airport     82  58  83  59 /  20  10   0   0 
Odessa                   82  59  84  60 /  20  10   0   0 
Wink                     84  58  86  60 /   0  10   0   0 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...80
LONG TERM....49
AVIATION...80