650 
FXUS64 KLCH 020449
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1149 PM CDT Fri Oct 1 2021

.DISCUSSION...
For the 10/02/21 0600 UTC TAF package.

&&

.AVIATION...
Saw little reason to deviate much from the previous forecast, with
the exception of adding VCSH to KBPT through the overnight period
with developing showers already noted over the SE TX coastal
waters.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 926 PM CDT Fri Oct 1 2021/ 

UPDATE...
Evening update.

DISCUSSION...
Showers are still present over parts of the area. Most of these 
showers and will dissipate and move out over the next several 
hours but additional showers and thunderstorms could develop 
overnight, primarily for southwestern areas.

PoPs were adjusted to account for current radar activity and the
latest run of the HRRR (00Z) indicating modest activity 
overnight. Patchy fog will be possible during the late night and 
morning hours as winds will be light.

55

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 658 PM CDT Fri Oct 1 2021/ 

DISCUSSION...
For the 10/02/21 0000 UTC TAF package.

AVIATION...
Broad patches of light rain in a swath roughly along the Sabine 
River resulting in a slight VSBY restriction at KLCH, which is
expected to improve over the next couple of hours as the rain
gradually comes to an end. Elsewhere, some isolated showers east
of KLFT and KARA are expected to remain east of the terminals,
with another band of showers lifting toward the NW in the
direction of KAEX. This latter feature prompted the insertion of a
brief mid evening TEMPO group at KAEX, with a best estimate of 
0230Z for an arrival time assuming it can last that long.
Otherwise, no real concerns in the short term, with VFR expected 
to generally prevail the rest of the evening. Heading into the
overnight period, low stratus and VSBY reductions are expected to
develop once again, and have used a blend of latest guidance and
persistence to construct the forecast, with a period of IFR
expected at each site. These conditions will improve generally in
the mid to late morning time period. Latest CAM guidance again 
showing the most persistent convective activity focused around 
KBPT and KLCH through the day, and more scattered in nature across
the rest of the area. 

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 348 PM CDT Fri Oct 1 2021/ 

SHORT TERM [Tonight through Sunday]...

Storms over southeast Texas continue a slow march to the east 
this evening with some storms now into southwest Louisiana. 
Southern Louisiana has seen some storm activity through the day 
around New Iberia and Lake Charles. As a result temperatures have 
remained on the cool side and this pattern will continue for the 
next several days. For tonight looking at areas of fog developing 
lowering the vsby late tonight and thru sunrise.

An upper level low continues it's slow progression out of the
desert sw and looks to been into western Oklahoma and southwestern
Kansas by Sunday morning. A cool front near DFW/FTW remains 
nearly stalled but will show some movement as the upper level 
system pushes east with the cool boundary expected to approach SHV
Sunday morning. But the main push will be to the north and this 
front will be slow to continue it's movement towards the region 
but it will continue. It looks to be a wet weekend but there will
be breaks from the rains... temperatures will also moderate. Front
comes through late Sunday into Monday.

19

LONG TERM [Monday through Friday]...

At the start of the forecast period, cooler and drier air will be 
pushing into the area thanks to a cold front passage overnight. 
Throughout the day Monday, rain chances will be rapidly decreasing 
from northwest to southeast with the passage of an upper level trof. 
Rain chances from this point to the end of the period will be low as 
a cutoff low looks to set up over the southeastern US, further 
reinforcing dry air throughout the area. 

Temperatures do not look to cool down very much for the work week. 
Daytime highs will be in the mid 80s and nighttime lows in the low 
to mid 60s. With the dry air in place over the region, relative 
humidity values will remain fairly low throughout the daily cycle, 
making the outdoors feel much more comfortable than they have 
in recent days. 

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  85  70  85 /  50  70  30  70 
LCH  72  84  71  84 /  70  80  40  80 
LFT  73  85  72  85 /  40  80  30  80 
BPT  71  83  70  85 /  70  80  40  70 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$