650 FXUS64 KLCH 020449 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1149 PM CDT Fri Oct 1 2021 .DISCUSSION... For the 10/02/21 0600 UTC TAF package. && .AVIATION... Saw little reason to deviate much from the previous forecast, with the exception of adding VCSH to KBPT through the overnight period with developing showers already noted over the SE TX coastal waters. 13 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 926 PM CDT Fri Oct 1 2021/ UPDATE... Evening update. DISCUSSION... Showers are still present over parts of the area. Most of these showers and will dissipate and move out over the next several hours but additional showers and thunderstorms could develop overnight, primarily for southwestern areas. PoPs were adjusted to account for current radar activity and the latest run of the HRRR (00Z) indicating modest activity overnight. Patchy fog will be possible during the late night and morning hours as winds will be light. 55 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 658 PM CDT Fri Oct 1 2021/ DISCUSSION... For the 10/02/21 0000 UTC TAF package. AVIATION... Broad patches of light rain in a swath roughly along the Sabine River resulting in a slight VSBY restriction at KLCH, which is expected to improve over the next couple of hours as the rain gradually comes to an end. Elsewhere, some isolated showers east of KLFT and KARA are expected to remain east of the terminals, with another band of showers lifting toward the NW in the direction of KAEX. This latter feature prompted the insertion of a brief mid evening TEMPO group at KAEX, with a best estimate of 0230Z for an arrival time assuming it can last that long. Otherwise, no real concerns in the short term, with VFR expected to generally prevail the rest of the evening. Heading into the overnight period, low stratus and VSBY reductions are expected to develop once again, and have used a blend of latest guidance and persistence to construct the forecast, with a period of IFR expected at each site. These conditions will improve generally in the mid to late morning time period. Latest CAM guidance again showing the most persistent convective activity focused around KBPT and KLCH through the day, and more scattered in nature across the rest of the area. 13 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 348 PM CDT Fri Oct 1 2021/ SHORT TERM [Tonight through Sunday]... Storms over southeast Texas continue a slow march to the east this evening with some storms now into southwest Louisiana. Southern Louisiana has seen some storm activity through the day around New Iberia and Lake Charles. As a result temperatures have remained on the cool side and this pattern will continue for the next several days. For tonight looking at areas of fog developing lowering the vsby late tonight and thru sunrise. An upper level low continues it's slow progression out of the desert sw and looks to been into western Oklahoma and southwestern Kansas by Sunday morning. A cool front near DFW/FTW remains nearly stalled but will show some movement as the upper level system pushes east with the cool boundary expected to approach SHV Sunday morning. But the main push will be to the north and this front will be slow to continue it's movement towards the region but it will continue. It looks to be a wet weekend but there will be breaks from the rains... temperatures will also moderate. Front comes through late Sunday into Monday. 19 LONG TERM [Monday through Friday]... At the start of the forecast period, cooler and drier air will be pushing into the area thanks to a cold front passage overnight. Throughout the day Monday, rain chances will be rapidly decreasing from northwest to southeast with the passage of an upper level trof. Rain chances from this point to the end of the period will be low as a cutoff low looks to set up over the southeastern US, further reinforcing dry air throughout the area. Temperatures do not look to cool down very much for the work week. Daytime highs will be in the mid 80s and nighttime lows in the low to mid 60s. With the dry air in place over the region, relative humidity values will remain fairly low throughout the daily cycle, making the outdoors feel much more comfortable than they have in recent days. 11 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 71 85 70 85 / 50 70 30 70 LCH 72 84 71 84 / 70 80 40 80 LFT 73 85 72 85 / 40 80 30 80 BPT 71 83 70 85 / 70 80 40 70 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$