158 
FXUS63 KFGF 281720
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1220 PM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021

Mostly clear, breezy, and warm conditions continue. Several
locations in the southern Red River Valley have already topped 80
degrees and will continue to climb. 

UPDATE Issued at 942 AM CDT
Tue Sep 28 2021

Very quiet this morning with clear skies. Winds continue to slowly
pick up from the south and southeast, and could get gusty this
afternoon. Temps still seem on track to get extremely warm this
afternoon, into the 80s with even a few low 90s possible. 

UPDATE Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021

Wind speeds remain steadiest within the Red River Valley, but 
they are still fairly light on either side. These winds will pick
up through the morning and remain gusty through the afternoon and
early evening. Still hardly a cloud in the sky this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021

High temperatures the next couple of days and rain/thunder chances
Wednesday afternoon are the main forecast challenges.

As of early this Tuesday morning, there was hardly a cloud in the
sky across a good portion of the northern and western high plains
all the way into central Canada. Steady south winds were helping
to hold temperatures up, which wasn't the case at this time
yesterday. Surface dew points were still pretty dry, generally in
the mid 40s to low 50s. Any 60+ dew points were down in Texas.
As the 850mb thermal ridge moves over the FA today, 850mb 
temperatures look to be about 4 to 7C warmer than yesterday (when
highs were in the mid 70s to low 80s). South winds will get breezy
by afternoon again, but south winds are not as good as westerly 
winds for getting really out of control highs. Did stay on the 
warmer side of guidance, with mainly mid to upper 80s today.
Record highs at Fargo/Grand Forks are around 90, so it will be
close.

Staying with the dry theme, also undercut lows a tad tonight. The
850mb thermal ridge weakens and slides a little east of the FA on
Wednesday, as the southerly 500mb flow sets up. Raised highs a
little more in the eastern FA on Wednesday, but also dropped dew
points a little too (hard to believe the NBM, which gives 60+ 
readings into the FA). The trend in the models the past few days 
has been a slower onset to any precipitation over this FA on 
Wednesday. Therefore dropped any morning mention, but kept it in 
for the afternoon. With the dry low levels initially and lack of 
good forcing, think that is the way to go. If any precipitation
were to occur, it would be minimal anyway. The NBM is also 
backing off on the probabilities for greater than a tenth of an 
inch during this time frame, showing them further south (over 
central SD into central Nebraska).

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021

Ongoing showers and thunderstorms continue Wednesday night into 
Thursday with minimal impacts expected. This will mark the beginning 
of slightly cooler temperatures through Friday and into the weekend. 
H5 ridging remains quite amplified to the east of the occluded low 
that will usher in the rain chances that are expected to span the 
Wednesday through Friday time frame. As the low pushes slowly 
eastward, it is expected to moderate, then drift back to the west. 
Slightly cooler air will wrap around the western side of the low; 
however, there will not be much in the way a available cold air to 
bring our temperatures into the average range until early next week. 

High temperatures across the Thursday through Saturday period will 
generally range from the upper 60s to the middle 70s. Cooler 
afternoon highs prevail from Sunday onward into next week, with 
highs in the 60s. Low temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s 
Thursday through Saturday, with 40s from Sunday onward.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021

VFR conditions now and throughout the period. Some wind gusts
around 20 kts this afternoon from the south. Winds will be less
gusty tonight but there will be some low level wind shear
possible. South winds will continue for the remainder of the
period. 

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Lynch
AVIATION...JR