158 FXUS63 KFGF 281720 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1220 PM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021 Mostly clear, breezy, and warm conditions continue. Several locations in the southern Red River Valley have already topped 80 degrees and will continue to climb. UPDATE Issued at 942 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021 Very quiet this morning with clear skies. Winds continue to slowly pick up from the south and southeast, and could get gusty this afternoon. Temps still seem on track to get extremely warm this afternoon, into the 80s with even a few low 90s possible. UPDATE Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021 Wind speeds remain steadiest within the Red River Valley, but they are still fairly light on either side. These winds will pick up through the morning and remain gusty through the afternoon and early evening. Still hardly a cloud in the sky this morning. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021 High temperatures the next couple of days and rain/thunder chances Wednesday afternoon are the main forecast challenges. As of early this Tuesday morning, there was hardly a cloud in the sky across a good portion of the northern and western high plains all the way into central Canada. Steady south winds were helping to hold temperatures up, which wasn't the case at this time yesterday. Surface dew points were still pretty dry, generally in the mid 40s to low 50s. Any 60+ dew points were down in Texas. As the 850mb thermal ridge moves over the FA today, 850mb temperatures look to be about 4 to 7C warmer than yesterday (when highs were in the mid 70s to low 80s). South winds will get breezy by afternoon again, but south winds are not as good as westerly winds for getting really out of control highs. Did stay on the warmer side of guidance, with mainly mid to upper 80s today. Record highs at Fargo/Grand Forks are around 90, so it will be close. Staying with the dry theme, also undercut lows a tad tonight. The 850mb thermal ridge weakens and slides a little east of the FA on Wednesday, as the southerly 500mb flow sets up. Raised highs a little more in the eastern FA on Wednesday, but also dropped dew points a little too (hard to believe the NBM, which gives 60+ readings into the FA). The trend in the models the past few days has been a slower onset to any precipitation over this FA on Wednesday. Therefore dropped any morning mention, but kept it in for the afternoon. With the dry low levels initially and lack of good forcing, think that is the way to go. If any precipitation were to occur, it would be minimal anyway. The NBM is also backing off on the probabilities for greater than a tenth of an inch during this time frame, showing them further south (over central SD into central Nebraska). .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021 Ongoing showers and thunderstorms continue Wednesday night into Thursday with minimal impacts expected. This will mark the beginning of slightly cooler temperatures through Friday and into the weekend. H5 ridging remains quite amplified to the east of the occluded low that will usher in the rain chances that are expected to span the Wednesday through Friday time frame. As the low pushes slowly eastward, it is expected to moderate, then drift back to the west. Slightly cooler air will wrap around the western side of the low; however, there will not be much in the way a available cold air to bring our temperatures into the average range until early next week. High temperatures across the Thursday through Saturday period will generally range from the upper 60s to the middle 70s. Cooler afternoon highs prevail from Sunday onward into next week, with highs in the 60s. Low temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s Thursday through Saturday, with 40s from Sunday onward. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021 VFR conditions now and throughout the period. Some wind gusts around 20 kts this afternoon from the south. Winds will be less gusty tonight but there will be some low level wind shear possible. South winds will continue for the remainder of the period. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. $$ UPDATE...JR SHORT TERM...Godon LONG TERM...Lynch AVIATION...JR