303 
FXUS64 KAMA 201913
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
213 PM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday Night...

Cold front continues to push into southern TX this evening.  Winds 
will continue to be out of the north in the 15 to 25 mph range with 
gusts as high as 40 mph.  Secondary push of cooler air expected 
later tonight with morning lows expected to be in the 50s across the 
Panhandles. 

Latest updates to the models suggest that there is still a strong 
700mb moist layer moving into the north, and there may even be some 
broken to overcast clouds across the northern Panhandles.  However, 
there seems to be enough dry air in the  lower levels and the 500mb 
warm nose appears to cap off any instability that was previously 
forecast.  So it seems that the better chance for anything to happen 
would just be in the form of rain, v.s. a potential thunderstorm or 
two, given the lack of instability.  But again, the lower levels 
look pretty dry and not sure there will be enough moisture overcome 
the dryness in the lower levels. 

Highs on Tuesday are expected to be on the cool side 
with most of the Panhandles being in the lower to mid 70s.  Normal 
highs for this time of year are in the lower to mid 80s.  High 
pressure will build over the western CONUS as the upper level trough 
begins to slide east out of TX Tuesday evening.  Surface high over. 
the Panhandles on Tuesday night will allow for strong radiational 
cooling and Wednesday morning lows are expected to drop into the 
lower 40s to lower 50s.  

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...

Dry conditions are expected throughout the long term forecast
period. Northwest H500 flow will continue across the Panhandles
through the remainder of the week with large scale subsidence
continuing. Winds will be breezy during the daytime hours each day
as we mix in the column nicely with mostly clear skies, tapering
off by sunset. The main H250 sinusoidal jet across the northern 
CONUS into Canada will steer the moisture from passing weather 
systems either over the northern Rockies ridge or across the 
northern Plains and Great Lakes Region from secondary low pressure
systems.

Latest 20/12Z model and numerical data shows a cut off low 
pressure system centered over northern Baja California by this
weekend. Will still keep the Panhandles dry as its main moisture
transport east of the low surging north is well to the west of the
Panhandles. But going into early next week as the cut off low gets
reintroduced into the main flow, precipitation chances could
return next week. Still several days out and we will watch
closely. High temperatures throughout the long term forecast 
period will progressively get warmer into the coming weekend with
temperatures above average throughout.

Meccariello

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                55  75  48  80  53 /   5   0   0   0   0 
Beaver OK                  55  76  46  82  53 /  20   0   0   0   0 
Boise City OK              50  71  43  81  47 /  10   0   0   0   0 
Borger TX                  58  77  50  84  56 /   5   0   0   0   0 
Boys Ranch TX              56  75  48  82  54 /   5   0   0   0   0 
Canyon TX                  55  74  47  80  52 /   5   0   0   0   0 
Clarendon TX               59  76  50  79  53 /   5   0   0   0   0 
Dalhart TX                 50  72  42  80  46 /   5   0   0   0   0 
Guymon OK                  53  75  44  83  50 /  20   0   0   0   0 
Hereford TX                55  75  47  81  52 /   5   0   0   0   0 
Lipscomb TX                56  75  47  80  53 /  20   0   0   0   0 
Pampa TX                   55  74  48  80  53 /   5   0   0   0   0 
Shamrock TX                57  78  48  80  51 /   5   0   0   0   0 
Wellington TX              59  79  49  81  50 /   5   0   0   0   0 

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

89/29