303 FXUS64 KAMA 201913 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 213 PM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday Night... Cold front continues to push into southern TX this evening. Winds will continue to be out of the north in the 15 to 25 mph range with gusts as high as 40 mph. Secondary push of cooler air expected later tonight with morning lows expected to be in the 50s across the Panhandles. Latest updates to the models suggest that there is still a strong 700mb moist layer moving into the north, and there may even be some broken to overcast clouds across the northern Panhandles. However, there seems to be enough dry air in the lower levels and the 500mb warm nose appears to cap off any instability that was previously forecast. So it seems that the better chance for anything to happen would just be in the form of rain, v.s. a potential thunderstorm or two, given the lack of instability. But again, the lower levels look pretty dry and not sure there will be enough moisture overcome the dryness in the lower levels. Highs on Tuesday are expected to be on the cool side with most of the Panhandles being in the lower to mid 70s. Normal highs for this time of year are in the lower to mid 80s. High pressure will build over the western CONUS as the upper level trough begins to slide east out of TX Tuesday evening. Surface high over. the Panhandles on Tuesday night will allow for strong radiational cooling and Wednesday morning lows are expected to drop into the lower 40s to lower 50s. Weber && .LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday... Dry conditions are expected throughout the long term forecast period. Northwest H500 flow will continue across the Panhandles through the remainder of the week with large scale subsidence continuing. Winds will be breezy during the daytime hours each day as we mix in the column nicely with mostly clear skies, tapering off by sunset. The main H250 sinusoidal jet across the northern CONUS into Canada will steer the moisture from passing weather systems either over the northern Rockies ridge or across the northern Plains and Great Lakes Region from secondary low pressure systems. Latest 20/12Z model and numerical data shows a cut off low pressure system centered over northern Baja California by this weekend. Will still keep the Panhandles dry as its main moisture transport east of the low surging north is well to the west of the Panhandles. But going into early next week as the cut off low gets reintroduced into the main flow, precipitation chances could return next week. Still several days out and we will watch closely. High temperatures throughout the long term forecast period will progressively get warmer into the coming weekend with temperatures above average throughout. Meccariello && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 55 75 48 80 53 / 5 0 0 0 0 Beaver OK 55 76 46 82 53 / 20 0 0 0 0 Boise City OK 50 71 43 81 47 / 10 0 0 0 0 Borger TX 58 77 50 84 56 / 5 0 0 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 56 75 48 82 54 / 5 0 0 0 0 Canyon TX 55 74 47 80 52 / 5 0 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 59 76 50 79 53 / 5 0 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 50 72 42 80 46 / 5 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 53 75 44 83 50 / 20 0 0 0 0 Hereford TX 55 75 47 81 52 / 5 0 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 56 75 47 80 53 / 20 0 0 0 0 Pampa TX 55 74 48 80 53 / 5 0 0 0 0 Shamrock TX 57 78 48 80 51 / 5 0 0 0 0 Wellington TX 59 79 49 81 50 / 5 0 0 0 0 && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ 89/29