289 
FXUS62 KILM 132330
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
730 PM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring sunny, dry and warm weather with 
building humidity this week. Rain chances will return midweek 
and may increase late in the week, as tropical moisture moves 
across the Carolinas.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Persistence forecast in order as high pressure both at the 
surface and aloft will remain in control of conditions through 
early Wednesday. Some low level moisture along with seemingly 
hours of calm winds may lead to some fog inland early Tuesday 
and again Wednesday. The air mass will continue to slowly modify
through the period with morning lows Tuesday again in the 
middle 60s or so with upper 60s expected early Wednesday. Highs 
will approach and in some cases may exceed 90 degrees for highs 
Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Deep-layer southerly flow develops on Wednesday with tropical 
moisture streaming into the area. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are expected ahead of a broad mid-level trough. 
Warm and humid with the surface flow out of the SE; highs in the
upper 80s. Few changes on Thursday as the trough weakens 
slightly and southerly flow is maintained across the area. NHC 
will also continue to monitor an area of low pressure off the NC
coast that may approach the area on Wednesday night into 
Thursday. Currently, environmental factors show that this system
would have a hard time developing, but a closed low is possible
with areas of enhanced rainfall just off the coast. A few of 
these heavy showers may affect the coastal areas of NC. Little 
to no additional impacts expected. Regardless, showers and 
storms are likely on Thursday with a moist tropical air mass in 
place, highs in the mid to upper 80s (slightly cooler due to 
cloud cover and a more NE component to the prevailing surface 
flow).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Tropical moisture will hang around for the latter half of next 
week. The mostly zonal flow in the mid-levels and additional 
moisture will maintain scattered showers on Friday. The exiting 
disturbance will bring northeasterly flow and a drying trend (in
the mid and upper- levels) by Saturday as high pressure builds 
over the Northeastern US. Portions of NC could see enough 
influence from the building ridge with decreasing rain chances. 
While the drying trend should continue into the weekend and 
early next week, much of the area will maintain a chance of 
showers with non-tropical PW still capable of isolated to 
scattered showers and storms. Temperatures each day will hold 
near or slightly above normal with the ridge to our north and 
onshore flow maintaining a humid near-surface air mass.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR through the evening hours with light southerly winds. 
Better chance for fog tonight, particularly inland. Continued 
light southerly flow on Tuesday with VFR conditions.

Extended Outlook... Mainly VFR continues with patchy MVFR from 
early morning ground fog and/or low stratus during each morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday night... Benign conditions will remain in place
across the coastal waters through the short term period as high
pressure remains in control. Winds now in the single digits 
will increase to perhaps the lower end of a 10-15 knot range by 
early Wednesday but even that may be a stretch. Direction will 
be mostly from the southeast. Significant seas, lacking any 
significant swell component will be 1-2 feet.

Wednesday through Saturday... On Wednesday, high pressure will 
slide offshore and a SE wind will develop around 10-15 knots. 
Seas build to 3-4 feet with the easterly return flow. On 
Wednesday night into Thursday, the gradient will increase in 
response to a developing area of low pressure offshore. This 
weak disturbance should remain well offshore with potential for 
3-5 foot waves and gusts to 15 knots. Gradient weakens on Friday
and fails to recover over the weekend as SW flow dominates over
the weekend. Will maintain a chance of showers and storms each 
day.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...31
MARINE...SHK/21