289 FXUS62 KILM 132330 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 730 PM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring sunny, dry and warm weather with building humidity this week. Rain chances will return midweek and may increase late in the week, as tropical moisture moves across the Carolinas. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Persistence forecast in order as high pressure both at the surface and aloft will remain in control of conditions through early Wednesday. Some low level moisture along with seemingly hours of calm winds may lead to some fog inland early Tuesday and again Wednesday. The air mass will continue to slowly modify through the period with morning lows Tuesday again in the middle 60s or so with upper 60s expected early Wednesday. Highs will approach and in some cases may exceed 90 degrees for highs Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Deep-layer southerly flow develops on Wednesday with tropical moisture streaming into the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of a broad mid-level trough. Warm and humid with the surface flow out of the SE; highs in the upper 80s. Few changes on Thursday as the trough weakens slightly and southerly flow is maintained across the area. NHC will also continue to monitor an area of low pressure off the NC coast that may approach the area on Wednesday night into Thursday. Currently, environmental factors show that this system would have a hard time developing, but a closed low is possible with areas of enhanced rainfall just off the coast. A few of these heavy showers may affect the coastal areas of NC. Little to no additional impacts expected. Regardless, showers and storms are likely on Thursday with a moist tropical air mass in place, highs in the mid to upper 80s (slightly cooler due to cloud cover and a more NE component to the prevailing surface flow). && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Tropical moisture will hang around for the latter half of next week. The mostly zonal flow in the mid-levels and additional moisture will maintain scattered showers on Friday. The exiting disturbance will bring northeasterly flow and a drying trend (in the mid and upper- levels) by Saturday as high pressure builds over the Northeastern US. Portions of NC could see enough influence from the building ridge with decreasing rain chances. While the drying trend should continue into the weekend and early next week, much of the area will maintain a chance of showers with non-tropical PW still capable of isolated to scattered showers and storms. Temperatures each day will hold near or slightly above normal with the ridge to our north and onshore flow maintaining a humid near-surface air mass. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR through the evening hours with light southerly winds. Better chance for fog tonight, particularly inland. Continued light southerly flow on Tuesday with VFR conditions. Extended Outlook... Mainly VFR continues with patchy MVFR from early morning ground fog and/or low stratus during each morning. && .MARINE... Through Tuesday night... Benign conditions will remain in place across the coastal waters through the short term period as high pressure remains in control. Winds now in the single digits will increase to perhaps the lower end of a 10-15 knot range by early Wednesday but even that may be a stretch. Direction will be mostly from the southeast. Significant seas, lacking any significant swell component will be 1-2 feet. Wednesday through Saturday... On Wednesday, high pressure will slide offshore and a SE wind will develop around 10-15 knots. Seas build to 3-4 feet with the easterly return flow. On Wednesday night into Thursday, the gradient will increase in response to a developing area of low pressure offshore. This weak disturbance should remain well offshore with potential for 3-5 foot waves and gusts to 15 knots. Gradient weakens on Friday and fails to recover over the weekend as SW flow dominates over the weekend. Will maintain a chance of showers and storms each day. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM...21 AVIATION...31 MARINE...SHK/21