768 
FXUS63 KEAX 131946
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
246 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

.Discussion...
Issued at 245 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2021

Message of the Day

- Dry, breezy, and warm day today. 

- Showers and storms return Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday 
morning. A storm or two could be strong to severe Tuesday 
afternoon/evening south of HWY 36, with hail and wind being the main 
concerns. Rain totals have decreased. Now expected up to 0.50 inch 
of rain.


Discussion

Our area remains well in the warm sector today, making it another 
day with above normal temperatures. Smoke continues to move in over 
the region though, hindering some sunlight. Therefore, temperatures 
should max out in the upper 80s again. It is also another breezy 
afternoon, with southwest winds gusting up between 25-30 mph. Winds 
will lighten up some after sunset, but gusts up to 20 mph are 
expected overnight as the cold front starts approaching from the 
north. 

Tomorrow, a deeper shortwave trough will move across the region and 
push a cold front south through our area. The front should reach KC 
around midday, so those north of the front will see high temps in 
the upper 70s to low 80s with those south seeing the mid to upper 
80s again. High res models still show shower and storm development 
along and behind the front starting tomorrow afternoon, but it looks 
pretty isolated to scattered throughout the afternoon and 
evening. There is still a chance for a strong to severe storm or 
two tomorrow afternoon and evening, south of HWY 36. There will be
plenty of CAPE to work with with some decent deep layer shear
overlapping. Hail and strong wind gusts are the main concerns. 
The chance for strong to severe weather will decrease as the sun 
goes down. Shower and storm chances will increase as we approach 
sunset, south of I-70 (along the front). This is when the upper 
level shortwave trough will move overhead. Showers and storms will
gradually move south overnight with the front, exiting the area 
Wednesday morning. Given the front is moving through quicker and 
decreasing rain chances/coverage, rain totals have decreased. Now 
expect up to 0.50 inch of rain, mainly south of HWY 36. 

High pressure will move in behind the front, making Wednesday a 
pretty nice day with mostly clear skies and highs in the upper 70s 
to low 80s. The high will move off the the east quickly though, 
shifting winds back to the southwest Thursday. Warm air advection
will increase across the area, bringing temperatures back to the 
upper 80s to near 90 for the weekend. We don't have any 
appreciable rain chances for the rest of the week, but there will 
be a couple of shortwave troughs that move through the upper 
Midwest bringing rain chances close to the MO/IA border.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2021

VFR conditions are expected for this TAF period. Southwest winds
sustained around 15 kts gusting up to 25-30 kts are expected this
afternoon. Winds will decrease some around sunset, but will remain
somewhat elevated through the overnight hours. The LLJ will
strengthen overnight, but LLWS concerns are not anticipated since
surface winds will remain higher and there won't be much of a
directional change between the surface and 2000 ft. Tomorrow
morning a cold front will start moving south into the area. It
will bring rain and storm chances but those should hold off until
the afternoon hours. 


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Atkins
Aviation...Atkins