768 FXUS63 KEAX 131946 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 246 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 .Discussion... Issued at 245 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2021 Message of the Day - Dry, breezy, and warm day today. - Showers and storms return Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. A storm or two could be strong to severe Tuesday afternoon/evening south of HWY 36, with hail and wind being the main concerns. Rain totals have decreased. Now expected up to 0.50 inch of rain. Discussion Our area remains well in the warm sector today, making it another day with above normal temperatures. Smoke continues to move in over the region though, hindering some sunlight. Therefore, temperatures should max out in the upper 80s again. It is also another breezy afternoon, with southwest winds gusting up between 25-30 mph. Winds will lighten up some after sunset, but gusts up to 20 mph are expected overnight as the cold front starts approaching from the north. Tomorrow, a deeper shortwave trough will move across the region and push a cold front south through our area. The front should reach KC around midday, so those north of the front will see high temps in the upper 70s to low 80s with those south seeing the mid to upper 80s again. High res models still show shower and storm development along and behind the front starting tomorrow afternoon, but it looks pretty isolated to scattered throughout the afternoon and evening. There is still a chance for a strong to severe storm or two tomorrow afternoon and evening, south of HWY 36. There will be plenty of CAPE to work with with some decent deep layer shear overlapping. Hail and strong wind gusts are the main concerns. The chance for strong to severe weather will decrease as the sun goes down. Shower and storm chances will increase as we approach sunset, south of I-70 (along the front). This is when the upper level shortwave trough will move overhead. Showers and storms will gradually move south overnight with the front, exiting the area Wednesday morning. Given the front is moving through quicker and decreasing rain chances/coverage, rain totals have decreased. Now expect up to 0.50 inch of rain, mainly south of HWY 36. High pressure will move in behind the front, making Wednesday a pretty nice day with mostly clear skies and highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. The high will move off the the east quickly though, shifting winds back to the southwest Thursday. Warm air advection will increase across the area, bringing temperatures back to the upper 80s to near 90 for the weekend. We don't have any appreciable rain chances for the rest of the week, but there will be a couple of shortwave troughs that move through the upper Midwest bringing rain chances close to the MO/IA border. && .Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon) Issued at 1208 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2021 VFR conditions are expected for this TAF period. Southwest winds sustained around 15 kts gusting up to 25-30 kts are expected this afternoon. Winds will decrease some around sunset, but will remain somewhat elevated through the overnight hours. The LLJ will strengthen overnight, but LLWS concerns are not anticipated since surface winds will remain higher and there won't be much of a directional change between the surface and 2000 ft. Tomorrow morning a cold front will start moving south into the area. It will bring rain and storm chances but those should hold off until the afternoon hours. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ Discussion...Atkins Aviation...Atkins