299 
FXUS63 KICT 131816
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
116 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

Convection that developed along the front range has slowly 
diminished early this morning. Meso induced vort center (MCV) from 
this NW KS dying convection may drift east into central KS later 
this morning.  This MCV will mainly lead to some mid level 
cloudiness moving across central KS, and possibly a few elevated 
showers or more likely a few sprinkles.  So will include this 
mention for the morning hours across central KS.  

Latest surface analysis shows a stalled frontal boundary currently 
located across northern KS.  Most short range model solutions 
suggest that this boundary will remain stationary or shift a little 
bit back to the north by this afternoon, with any convection that 
develops along it, staying mainly north or northwest of the 
forecast area.  

For late this evening or tonight, this NW convection may propagate 
slowly towards central KS.  Latest NAM/WRF and GFS propagation 
vectors suggests that this convection may make it into central KS, 
or just northwest of central KS.  So will adjust pops a little 
further east into central KS late tonight for this chance. 

Lots of uncertainty on position of the frontal boundary on Tue, as 
the late night convection possibly making it into central KS may 
help push the front further south than the GFS suggests, which would 
be similar to the ECMWF solution. The latest GFS keeps the front 
across central KS into Tue afternoon, while the ECMWF pushes front 
into southern KS. The NAM/WRF looks like a nice compromise with the 
front with it located somewhere between highway 50 and Highway 
54/400 by Tue afternoon. Plan on going with solid chance pops for 
most of central KS for the daytime hours, with widely scattered 
showers/storms expected to develop along the boundary as it sags 
south by Tue afternoon. 

For late Tue afternoon/evening, NAM/WRF and ECMWF suggests that a 
warm elevated mixed layer will erode enough for strong to marginally 
severe convection to develop across most of the southern KS, as a 
mid level shortwave moves across KS, with convergence increasing 
along the front. With bulk shear expected to be around 30-35 kts, 
and marginal instability values of 1500-2000 j/KG think multicell 
clusters and few supercells may occur, with with large hail and 
damaging winds the main concerns. 

GFS paints a much drier picture for southern KS, keeping the 
strong/severe chances across central KS. Think a compromise between 
the GFS and NAM/WRF and ECMWF seems like the best option, keeping 
likely pops across southern KS by Tue evening with multicell 
clusters and a few supercells possible into the evening as well. 

Plan on keeping likely pops going for late Tue night into early Wed, 
as either the front is expected to drop south across southern KS, 
similar to the GFS, or the front will have already pushed south into 
nrn OK by then, with the increasing low level moisture transport 
over the top of the boundary, leading to off and on elevated 
convection along the mid level baroclinic zone expected to be 
located over southern KS. 

Tue afternoon through early Wed, looks the best chance for most 
locations to pick up rainfall over the next 5 to 6 days. With that 
in mind, plan on lingering showers and storms across southern KS 
early on Wed, as the frontal boundary "washes out" over either nrn 
or central OK. With the front pushing south for Wed, expect more 
seasonal (cooler) temperatures expected with highs in the low to mid 
80s. 

Ketcham 

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

Zonal flow will lead to dry south-southwest flow returning to the 
area for the end of the week into the weekend.  This downslope flow 
will lead to unseasonably warm temperatures returning to the area by 
the weekend. GFS ensembles show 2m/850H temp standardized anomalies 
of 2 to 3 going into the weekend which suggests that the National 
Model blend max temps going into the weekend may be too cool. 
Concerned about lingering mid level smoke continuing to impact max 
temps again next weekend, so will not tweak max temperatures 
warmer just yet.  

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

A stationary front across southern Nebraska will begin to approach
northern Kansas during the morning hours shifting winds to the
northeast although the bigger impacts are more likely towards the
end of the TAF period or during the afternoon hours on Tuesday.
Showers and thunderstorms will become increasingly likely along
the frontal zone as it shifts southward through the afternoon
hours. Meanwhile, VFR will prevail with breezy southwest winds
prevailing this afternoon diminishing some this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    95  69  90  64 /   0  10  30  70 
Hutchinson      95  68  88  62 /   0  10  30  70 
Newton          93  69  87  63 /   0  10  30  70 
ElDorado        93  69  88  64 /   0  10  30  70 
Winfield-KWLD   94  69  91  65 /   0  10  20  70 
Russell         97  66  85  58 /  10  20  30  50 
Great Bend      98  66  85  59 /   0  10  30  50 
Salina          94  69  86  60 /  10  10  30  60 
McPherson       94  67  86  61 /   0  10  30  70 
Coffeyville     93  70  90  66 /   0  10  20  60 
Chanute         92  71  88  66 /   0  10  30  70 
Iola            91  70  87  65 /   0  10  40  80 
Parsons-KPPF    93  70  90  66 /   0  10  30  70 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...MWM