299 FXUS63 KICT 131816 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 116 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 Convection that developed along the front range has slowly diminished early this morning. Meso induced vort center (MCV) from this NW KS dying convection may drift east into central KS later this morning. This MCV will mainly lead to some mid level cloudiness moving across central KS, and possibly a few elevated showers or more likely a few sprinkles. So will include this mention for the morning hours across central KS. Latest surface analysis shows a stalled frontal boundary currently located across northern KS. Most short range model solutions suggest that this boundary will remain stationary or shift a little bit back to the north by this afternoon, with any convection that develops along it, staying mainly north or northwest of the forecast area. For late this evening or tonight, this NW convection may propagate slowly towards central KS. Latest NAM/WRF and GFS propagation vectors suggests that this convection may make it into central KS, or just northwest of central KS. So will adjust pops a little further east into central KS late tonight for this chance. Lots of uncertainty on position of the frontal boundary on Tue, as the late night convection possibly making it into central KS may help push the front further south than the GFS suggests, which would be similar to the ECMWF solution. The latest GFS keeps the front across central KS into Tue afternoon, while the ECMWF pushes front into southern KS. The NAM/WRF looks like a nice compromise with the front with it located somewhere between highway 50 and Highway 54/400 by Tue afternoon. Plan on going with solid chance pops for most of central KS for the daytime hours, with widely scattered showers/storms expected to develop along the boundary as it sags south by Tue afternoon. For late Tue afternoon/evening, NAM/WRF and ECMWF suggests that a warm elevated mixed layer will erode enough for strong to marginally severe convection to develop across most of the southern KS, as a mid level shortwave moves across KS, with convergence increasing along the front. With bulk shear expected to be around 30-35 kts, and marginal instability values of 1500-2000 j/KG think multicell clusters and few supercells may occur, with with large hail and damaging winds the main concerns. GFS paints a much drier picture for southern KS, keeping the strong/severe chances across central KS. Think a compromise between the GFS and NAM/WRF and ECMWF seems like the best option, keeping likely pops across southern KS by Tue evening with multicell clusters and a few supercells possible into the evening as well. Plan on keeping likely pops going for late Tue night into early Wed, as either the front is expected to drop south across southern KS, similar to the GFS, or the front will have already pushed south into nrn OK by then, with the increasing low level moisture transport over the top of the boundary, leading to off and on elevated convection along the mid level baroclinic zone expected to be located over southern KS. Tue afternoon through early Wed, looks the best chance for most locations to pick up rainfall over the next 5 to 6 days. With that in mind, plan on lingering showers and storms across southern KS early on Wed, as the frontal boundary "washes out" over either nrn or central OK. With the front pushing south for Wed, expect more seasonal (cooler) temperatures expected with highs in the low to mid 80s. Ketcham .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 Zonal flow will lead to dry south-southwest flow returning to the area for the end of the week into the weekend. This downslope flow will lead to unseasonably warm temperatures returning to the area by the weekend. GFS ensembles show 2m/850H temp standardized anomalies of 2 to 3 going into the weekend which suggests that the National Model blend max temps going into the weekend may be too cool. Concerned about lingering mid level smoke continuing to impact max temps again next weekend, so will not tweak max temperatures warmer just yet. Ketcham && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 107 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 A stationary front across southern Nebraska will begin to approach northern Kansas during the morning hours shifting winds to the northeast although the bigger impacts are more likely towards the end of the TAF period or during the afternoon hours on Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will become increasingly likely along the frontal zone as it shifts southward through the afternoon hours. Meanwhile, VFR will prevail with breezy southwest winds prevailing this afternoon diminishing some this evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 95 69 90 64 / 0 10 30 70 Hutchinson 95 68 88 62 / 0 10 30 70 Newton 93 69 87 63 / 0 10 30 70 ElDorado 93 69 88 64 / 0 10 30 70 Winfield-KWLD 94 69 91 65 / 0 10 20 70 Russell 97 66 85 58 / 10 20 30 50 Great Bend 98 66 85 59 / 0 10 30 50 Salina 94 69 86 60 / 10 10 30 60 McPherson 94 67 86 61 / 0 10 30 70 Coffeyville 93 70 90 66 / 0 10 20 60 Chanute 92 71 88 66 / 0 10 30 70 Iola 91 70 87 65 / 0 10 40 80 Parsons-KPPF 93 70 90 66 / 0 10 30 70 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ketcham LONG TERM...Ketcham AVIATION...MWM