847 
FXUS62 KILM 131549
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1149 AM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring sunny, dry and warm weather with
building humidity this week. Rain chances will return midweek
and may increase late in the week, as tropical moisture moves 
across the Carolinas.

&&

.UPDATE...
No changes to the forecast with the mid morning update.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
'Fair and Warm' may describe the near term period as a dry upper 
ridge puts a foot-print across the region. Vapor channels show the 
arid intrusion into the area off a parched Bermuda High structure.

A slight shift eastward in the upper synoptic pattern will prompt a 
heartier low-level return flow Tuesday, resulting in pronounced 
afternoon cumulus coverage compared to today. Dry surface trough 
inland west of area maintains SW winds inland, S-SSE near the coast 
enhanced by a sea breeze circulation by above normal daytime highs. 

Wave energy has mellowed and beach-zones are safer for those without 
a flotation device, compared to this past weekend. Heed the flags of 
your local beach, this is the best option.&&

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A deep layer of SSE flow will continue Tuesday night, with high 
pressure center off the Mid-Atlantic coast, and low pressure lifting 
across Louisiana. Tropical Atlantic moisture will be on the increase 
Tuesday night, with the potential for showers advecting into coastal 
NE SC from the Atlantic in the predawn hours Wednesday. There will 
be potential for scattered showers/tstms CWA-wide Wednesday with 
lessening influence of mid-level ridge, as diurnal heating gets 
underway. Wednesday night will see the transition from primarily SSE 
flow from the sfc-500 mb, to SW flow through the entire column. This 
will result in tropical Atlantic moisture being replaced by tropical 
Gulf moisture, with continuing potential for scattered 
showers/tstms. Temps expected to be slightly above climo through the 
period, with overnight lows upper 60s to around 70, and highs upper 
80s, except mid 80s beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Remnant mid-level trough over the Deep South early Thursday will 
fill, with a ridge nudging in from the tropical Atlantic Friday and 
Saturday. Moisture across the SE CONUS will remain plentiful through 
the period, with precipitable water values hovering over 2". With a 
lack of any obvious synoptic forcing, expect scattered convective 
potential each day to be diurnally driven. Temps will be close to 
climo on Thursday, then slightly above climo Friday-Saturday with 
rising geopotential heights.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR through the evening hours. Southwest flow today, becoming
south southeast at the coastal terminals. Fair weather CU will
form along the sea breeze boundary. Better chance for fog
tonight, particularly inland. Continued light southerly flow on
Tuesday.

Extended Outlook... Mainly VFR continues with patchy MVFR from 
early morning ground fog and/or low stratus during each morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday Night...Post-card marine conditions as shades of blue paint skies and the 0-
20nm waters this period, while wave energy remains low-key following 
wave turbulence from Larry. Both Frying Pan buoy and inshore buoy 
registering seas less than 2 feet in a lazy 8-9 second rolling 
period. No weather hazards, dry atmosphere will prevent TSTMs, may 
see a few light showers offshore or near S Santee late Tuesday. The 
wave detail shows a weak E-SE swell this period conjoined by 
light to moderate S wind-sea and chop.

Tuesday night through Friday: Return flow around Bermuda high will 
dominate Tuesday night through Wednesday night, with tropical 
showers/psbl tstm expected to move in from the SE late Tuesday 
night. Already modest gradient becomes muddled Thursday as weak low 
pressure moves northward well offshore. Wind speeds on the order of 
10 kt or less through the period, and may become variable Thu-Fri 
due to the lack of a significant gradient.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...CRM
LONG TERM...CRM
AVIATION...43
MARINE...ILM/21/31