847 FXUS62 KILM 131549 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1149 AM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring sunny, dry and warm weather with building humidity this week. Rain chances will return midweek and may increase late in the week, as tropical moisture moves across the Carolinas. && .UPDATE... No changes to the forecast with the mid morning update. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 'Fair and Warm' may describe the near term period as a dry upper ridge puts a foot-print across the region. Vapor channels show the arid intrusion into the area off a parched Bermuda High structure. A slight shift eastward in the upper synoptic pattern will prompt a heartier low-level return flow Tuesday, resulting in pronounced afternoon cumulus coverage compared to today. Dry surface trough inland west of area maintains SW winds inland, S-SSE near the coast enhanced by a sea breeze circulation by above normal daytime highs. Wave energy has mellowed and beach-zones are safer for those without a flotation device, compared to this past weekend. Heed the flags of your local beach, this is the best option.&& && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A deep layer of SSE flow will continue Tuesday night, with high pressure center off the Mid-Atlantic coast, and low pressure lifting across Louisiana. Tropical Atlantic moisture will be on the increase Tuesday night, with the potential for showers advecting into coastal NE SC from the Atlantic in the predawn hours Wednesday. There will be potential for scattered showers/tstms CWA-wide Wednesday with lessening influence of mid-level ridge, as diurnal heating gets underway. Wednesday night will see the transition from primarily SSE flow from the sfc-500 mb, to SW flow through the entire column. This will result in tropical Atlantic moisture being replaced by tropical Gulf moisture, with continuing potential for scattered showers/tstms. Temps expected to be slightly above climo through the period, with overnight lows upper 60s to around 70, and highs upper 80s, except mid 80s beaches. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Remnant mid-level trough over the Deep South early Thursday will fill, with a ridge nudging in from the tropical Atlantic Friday and Saturday. Moisture across the SE CONUS will remain plentiful through the period, with precipitable water values hovering over 2". With a lack of any obvious synoptic forcing, expect scattered convective potential each day to be diurnally driven. Temps will be close to climo on Thursday, then slightly above climo Friday-Saturday with rising geopotential heights. && .AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR through the evening hours. Southwest flow today, becoming south southeast at the coastal terminals. Fair weather CU will form along the sea breeze boundary. Better chance for fog tonight, particularly inland. Continued light southerly flow on Tuesday. Extended Outlook... Mainly VFR continues with patchy MVFR from early morning ground fog and/or low stratus during each morning. && .MARINE... Through Monday Night...Post-card marine conditions as shades of blue paint skies and the 0- 20nm waters this period, while wave energy remains low-key following wave turbulence from Larry. Both Frying Pan buoy and inshore buoy registering seas less than 2 feet in a lazy 8-9 second rolling period. No weather hazards, dry atmosphere will prevent TSTMs, may see a few light showers offshore or near S Santee late Tuesday. The wave detail shows a weak E-SE swell this period conjoined by light to moderate S wind-sea and chop. Tuesday night through Friday: Return flow around Bermuda high will dominate Tuesday night through Wednesday night, with tropical showers/psbl tstm expected to move in from the SE late Tuesday night. Already modest gradient becomes muddled Thursday as weak low pressure moves northward well offshore. Wind speeds on the order of 10 kt or less through the period, and may become variable Thu-Fri due to the lack of a significant gradient. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...SHK NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...CRM LONG TERM...CRM AVIATION...43 MARINE...ILM/21/31