928 
FXUS64 KLZK 131127
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
627 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

.UPDATE...

Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions begin at most terminals w/ the exception of KADF. 
Flight categories will be suspect to degrade as cigs begin to lower 
across central and southern sites by 13/13Z. Later in the forecast 
period cigs will lower a second time across most sites by 14/10Z. 
Cigs will lower at times to MVFR and IFR conditions. Rain will be 
scattered across the SE and central sites between 13/18Z and 13/23Z. 
Winds will begin variable this morning and become out of the south 
by 13/15Z.  

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 315 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night

The fair weather, plentiful amounts of sunshine, and drier airmass 
we have enjoyed the last several days is coming to an abrupt end. 
The surface ridge is in the process of breaking down that was placed 
over the mid-South... this breaking down of the ridge will result in 
the advection of gulf moisture via the Gulf of Mexico into the state 
bringing clouds and higher dewpoint temperatures. Dewpoint 
temperatures will range from the upper 60's to lower 70's across the 
forecast area. 

Monday will see high temperatures range from the mid to upper 80's 
while a few locations could hit the 90 degree mark. Chances for 
diurnally driven showers/t-storms will increase in the afternoon, 
especially for central and southern Arkansas. Monday night will 
bring low temperatures that will only drop into the upper 60's/low 
70's across the state. 

Tuesday will be similar to Monday with increased chances of 
showers/t-storms across the state, especially across the southern 
2/3rds of the state. High temperatures will range from the mid to 
upper 80's as cloud cover and widespread areas of rain/isolated t-
storms will keep high temperatures in check. Tuesday night will see 
a continued chance of showers/t-storms in the southeastern portion 
of the state along with low temperatures in the upper 60's/low
70's. 

LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday

The pattern through the long term remains dependent on the evolution 
and path of TC Nicholas, which for now is still somewhat uncertain 
beyond landfall, however the picture is beginning to shape up as it 
nears the Srn Gulf Coast. Based on the recent suite of deterministic 
guidance and NHC track guidance, confidence is trending towards 
Nicholas moving inland at a crawl over Srn TX through the early 
portion of the week, and eventually beginning an E/wrd course 
towards Cntrl LA. Given current thinking, impacts to the Natural 
State are still expected to remain on the tame side, w/ potentially 
some appreciable rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches over the far Srn 
portion of the state. 

Near the end of the week, TC Nicholas wl have lkly filled in and/or 
gotten swept away by a descending H500 trof over the Cntrl US. 
Following the departure of Nicholas, a more settled wx pattern wl 
prevail as subtle ridging builds over the Srn Cntrl US ahead of more 
perturbed flow coming ashore over the Pac/NW. Under this pattern, 
temps wl stay near normal values, and PoPs wl become more diurnally 
driven as low-lvl moisture returns to not so pleasant levels, e.g. 
fcst Td's in the upper 60s at most locations.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...234