928 FXUS64 KLZK 131127 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 627 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 .UPDATE... Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions begin at most terminals w/ the exception of KADF. Flight categories will be suspect to degrade as cigs begin to lower across central and southern sites by 13/13Z. Later in the forecast period cigs will lower a second time across most sites by 14/10Z. Cigs will lower at times to MVFR and IFR conditions. Rain will be scattered across the SE and central sites between 13/18Z and 13/23Z. Winds will begin variable this morning and become out of the south by 13/15Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 315 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021) SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night The fair weather, plentiful amounts of sunshine, and drier airmass we have enjoyed the last several days is coming to an abrupt end. The surface ridge is in the process of breaking down that was placed over the mid-South... this breaking down of the ridge will result in the advection of gulf moisture via the Gulf of Mexico into the state bringing clouds and higher dewpoint temperatures. Dewpoint temperatures will range from the upper 60's to lower 70's across the forecast area. Monday will see high temperatures range from the mid to upper 80's while a few locations could hit the 90 degree mark. Chances for diurnally driven showers/t-storms will increase in the afternoon, especially for central and southern Arkansas. Monday night will bring low temperatures that will only drop into the upper 60's/low 70's across the state. Tuesday will be similar to Monday with increased chances of showers/t-storms across the state, especially across the southern 2/3rds of the state. High temperatures will range from the mid to upper 80's as cloud cover and widespread areas of rain/isolated t- storms will keep high temperatures in check. Tuesday night will see a continued chance of showers/t-storms in the southeastern portion of the state along with low temperatures in the upper 60's/low 70's. LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday The pattern through the long term remains dependent on the evolution and path of TC Nicholas, which for now is still somewhat uncertain beyond landfall, however the picture is beginning to shape up as it nears the Srn Gulf Coast. Based on the recent suite of deterministic guidance and NHC track guidance, confidence is trending towards Nicholas moving inland at a crawl over Srn TX through the early portion of the week, and eventually beginning an E/wrd course towards Cntrl LA. Given current thinking, impacts to the Natural State are still expected to remain on the tame side, w/ potentially some appreciable rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches over the far Srn portion of the state. Near the end of the week, TC Nicholas wl have lkly filled in and/or gotten swept away by a descending H500 trof over the Cntrl US. Following the departure of Nicholas, a more settled wx pattern wl prevail as subtle ridging builds over the Srn Cntrl US ahead of more perturbed flow coming ashore over the Pac/NW. Under this pattern, temps wl stay near normal values, and PoPs wl become more diurnally driven as low-lvl moisture returns to not so pleasant levels, e.g. fcst Td's in the upper 60s at most locations. && .LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ Aviation...234