889 
FXUS64 KMOB 092301 AAA
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
601 PM CDT Thu Sep 9 2021

.AVIATION...
00Z issuance...VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.
Light northerly winds tonight become northeasterly 5 to 10 knots
on Friday. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 PM CDT Thu Sep 9 2021/ 

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Friday/...A cold front continues to 
move south across the marine area this afternoon. In the wake of the 
front, a slightly cooler and much drier airmass will continue to 
flow into the area. Precipitable water values will fall below 1 inch 
across the entire region by this evening. There is a very isolated 
risk for a shower near the coast early this afternoon before the 
drier air moves in, however the higher rain chances will remain well 
offshore. The entire area will be dry tonight through Friday with 
much lower humidity levels. The drier air will allow temps to fall 
into the upper 50s and low 60s inland to around 70 along the coast 
tonight. Highs on Friday will be in the low to mid 80s inland to mid 
and upper 80s near the coast. /13

SHORT TERM /Friday night Through Sunday night/...Cooler drier
conditions will continue Friday night but by Saturday into Sunday
the upper level trough located over the eastern US will begin to
shift east as the upper ridge over the Panhandles of Texas and
Oklahoma flattens out. A weak easterly wave will begin to enter
the Bay Of Campeche in the southwestern Gulf as well which will
become more of a player in the extended period. Given the presence
of subsidence from the upper ridge over most of the land area, any
isolated to low end scattered storm coverage will be limited to 
the I-10 corridor and south along the coast. The best chances of 
rain will likely remain offshore. The main thing will be the slow 
and steady increase in moisture as surface winds turn more 
southerly and the lingering front washes out. Dewpoints and 
temperatures will be on the rise throughout the period (womp 
womp) leading to a return to the hot sticky normal we all come to 
hate every August and September. High temperatures will climb back
into the upper 80s to low 90s by Saturday and Sunday with lows 
back into the 70s (Yuck) by Saturday night. The brief taste of 
fall was nice while it lasted. BB/03

EXTENDED TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...A slow and steady climb
back to hot, humid and soggy will continue into the extended
period. Looking aloft, the upper high pressure will continue to
flatten out across the southern CONUS and split into two segments
on Monday as an upper longwave dives into the Dakotas and the
aforementioned easterly wave over the Bay of Campeche moves north
along the Texas coastline. As this system moves north, a plume of
deep Gulf moisture will come with it allowing PWATS to climb to 2
inches and eventually approach 2.25 inches by midweek. Rain
chances will be on the rise with a diurnal pattern as moisture
increases and given the weak steering flow, some localized heavy 
rainfall threat could develop as we head into Tuesday and
Wednesday. 

By Wednesday the upper trough digging into the Dakotas will
continue to slide east but weaken leading to an active pattern
continuing with some slightly better forcing Wednesday and 
Thursday. Unfortunately, this trough will not be strong enough to
push any kind of front through keeping us in a rather moisture 
rich environment leading to plenty of higher rain chances each 
afternoon. This pattern will likely continue past the extended as
the pattern remains. Temperatures will be warm but not overly hot
given the amount of rainfall and cloud cover possible through the
week. Highs will likely be in the upper 80s to low 90s with lows 
in the mid 70s once again. BB/03

MARINE...A light to moderate offshore flow will occur through
Friday in the wake of a cold front that moved through this morning.
Seas remain generally low through the period. Southeasterly flow 
returns over the weekend as high pressure builds over the western 
Atlantic into the northern Gulf. /13

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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