889 FXUS64 KMOB 092301 AAA AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 601 PM CDT Thu Sep 9 2021 .AVIATION... 00Z issuance...VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Light northerly winds tonight become northeasterly 5 to 10 knots on Friday. /29 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 PM CDT Thu Sep 9 2021/ NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Friday/...A cold front continues to move south across the marine area this afternoon. In the wake of the front, a slightly cooler and much drier airmass will continue to flow into the area. Precipitable water values will fall below 1 inch across the entire region by this evening. There is a very isolated risk for a shower near the coast early this afternoon before the drier air moves in, however the higher rain chances will remain well offshore. The entire area will be dry tonight through Friday with much lower humidity levels. The drier air will allow temps to fall into the upper 50s and low 60s inland to around 70 along the coast tonight. Highs on Friday will be in the low to mid 80s inland to mid and upper 80s near the coast. /13 SHORT TERM /Friday night Through Sunday night/...Cooler drier conditions will continue Friday night but by Saturday into Sunday the upper level trough located over the eastern US will begin to shift east as the upper ridge over the Panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma flattens out. A weak easterly wave will begin to enter the Bay Of Campeche in the southwestern Gulf as well which will become more of a player in the extended period. Given the presence of subsidence from the upper ridge over most of the land area, any isolated to low end scattered storm coverage will be limited to the I-10 corridor and south along the coast. The best chances of rain will likely remain offshore. The main thing will be the slow and steady increase in moisture as surface winds turn more southerly and the lingering front washes out. Dewpoints and temperatures will be on the rise throughout the period (womp womp) leading to a return to the hot sticky normal we all come to hate every August and September. High temperatures will climb back into the upper 80s to low 90s by Saturday and Sunday with lows back into the 70s (Yuck) by Saturday night. The brief taste of fall was nice while it lasted. BB/03 EXTENDED TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...A slow and steady climb back to hot, humid and soggy will continue into the extended period. Looking aloft, the upper high pressure will continue to flatten out across the southern CONUS and split into two segments on Monday as an upper longwave dives into the Dakotas and the aforementioned easterly wave over the Bay of Campeche moves north along the Texas coastline. As this system moves north, a plume of deep Gulf moisture will come with it allowing PWATS to climb to 2 inches and eventually approach 2.25 inches by midweek. Rain chances will be on the rise with a diurnal pattern as moisture increases and given the weak steering flow, some localized heavy rainfall threat could develop as we head into Tuesday and Wednesday. By Wednesday the upper trough digging into the Dakotas will continue to slide east but weaken leading to an active pattern continuing with some slightly better forcing Wednesday and Thursday. Unfortunately, this trough will not be strong enough to push any kind of front through keeping us in a rather moisture rich environment leading to plenty of higher rain chances each afternoon. This pattern will likely continue past the extended as the pattern remains. Temperatures will be warm but not overly hot given the amount of rainfall and cloud cover possible through the week. Highs will likely be in the upper 80s to low 90s with lows in the mid 70s once again. BB/03 MARINE...A light to moderate offshore flow will occur through Friday in the wake of a cold front that moved through this morning. Seas remain generally low through the period. Southeasterly flow returns over the weekend as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic into the northern Gulf. /13 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob