328 
FXUS63 KGLD 062304
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
504 PM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday Morning) 
Issued at 151 PM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021

The forecast period begins with northwesterly flow over the area 
with an amplifying ridge over the western CONUS. A dryline is setup 
across the CWA with elevated to near critical fire conditions 
behind. RH values less than 15% are currently being located along 
and west of Highway 83 in Kansas. Winds have remained light 
throughout the day (less than 10 knots) mitigating the overall fire 
weather risk somewhat. Weather wise not much is occurring due to 
the subsidence caused by the high pressure, as not even diurnal 
cumulus have been able to form thus far. Temperatures as of 1pm 
have already warmed into the upper 80s to mid 90s with a few hours
remaining of peak heating, the current high temperature forecast 
remains on track of widespread 90s. The HRRR Near Surface smoke 
has been showing some elevated areas of smoke moving south down 
the eastern periphery of the ridge causing the potential for haze 
to occur through the afternoon and into tomorrow morning, some 
visibility restrictions are possible especially towards sunrise. 
Overnight lows for tonight are forecasted in the mid 50s across 
east Colorado to the mid 60s across eastern portion of the 
forecast area.

A cold front moves through the CWA Tuesday morning as a stronger 
system occludes over the Great Lakes. As the front moves through 
winds will switch out of the north with gusty winds along and behind 
the front, some wind gusts may approach 30-35 mph. Fire weather is 
again possible due to the wind however, with RH's not as low as 
today but in the low 20s. Breezy to gusty winds will persist through 
the afternoon before waning during the evening. Afternoon highs wont 
be as warm as temperatures will remain in the 80s. Mainly clear 
skies are expected for Tuesday night with the entire area in the 
50s; some locales across east Colorado may even fall into the 40s 
for a brief period of time. 

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 157 PM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021

The primary concern in the long term period is the potential for
near critical fire weather conditions and blowing dust resulting
from a prolonged period of hot and dry conditions combined with
breezy winds.

A large high pressure area aloft moves across the 4-corners region
on Wednesday night and Thursday and into the southern Rockies and
southern high plains on Friday and Saturday as several short wave
troughs move through the westerly flow tracking along the
U.S./Canadian border. With the somewhat chaotic pattern moving
across the northern tier of states, model solutions are showing a
wide variety of timing and location differences with the
individual short waves embedded in the flow. Suffice to say the
bulk of the dynamics associated with the embedded waves remain
north of the central high plains region through the weekend and 
into the beginning of next week.

The consistencies that have remained are the slightly warmer than
average temperatures on Wednesday that warm to well above average
with highs in the lower to middle 90s on Thursday and the middle 
to upper 90s on Friday ahead of a cold front that moves across the
forecast area early Saturday morning along with one of the 
stronger short wave troughs aloft moving east of the Rockies and 
across the northern High Plains.

Hot and dry conditions on Thursday and Friday will produce near
critical fire weather conditions across mainly the western
sections of the forecast area along and west of KS Highway 27.
Afternoon minimum relative humidity values across this area will
be in the middle teens or lower. Wind speeds are not expected to
be over 25 mph at this time, which would keep the area from
reaching critical fire weather thresholds. This will, however, 
bear watching over the next few days as it will be close.

The cold front moving across the area early Saturday following 
several days of hot and dry conditions will bring the potential 
for blowing dust as wind speeds increase immediately along and behind
the front that could continue through mid-day on Saturday. Models
are not currently advertising windy conditions, but expect this to
change over the next couple of days. Even with the increase in
winds with the front, critical fire weather conditions are not
expected to be met on Saturday as relative humidity values will 
not exceed critical thresholds due to high temperatures being
slightly cooler with readings in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Temperatures will rise into the lower to middle 90s with an
increase in the potential to meet near critical fire weather
conditions as afternoon minimum relative humidity values venture 
back into the teens.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) 
Issued at 504 PM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021

Mainly VFR conditions expected for both terminals. Smoke aloft 
could create hazy conditions that could lower visibility to around
5sm at times from 08z-14z Tuesday for KGLD, and 11z-13z Tuesday 
for KMCK.

Boundary pushing thru the region will see southerly flow 
currently over the area, to become northerly. 

Winds for KGLD, southeast to southwest 10-20kts from 00z-08z 
Tuesday, then northwest around 10kts. By 14z, north-northeast 
15-30kts becoming northeast 10-15kts by 21z. 

Winds for KMCK, light/variable thru 11z Tuesday, then north 
10-15kts. Gusts up to 30kts from 13z-23z. By 23z, northeast 
around 10kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TT
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JN