328 FXUS63 KGLD 062304 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 504 PM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday Morning) Issued at 151 PM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021 The forecast period begins with northwesterly flow over the area with an amplifying ridge over the western CONUS. A dryline is setup across the CWA with elevated to near critical fire conditions behind. RH values less than 15% are currently being located along and west of Highway 83 in Kansas. Winds have remained light throughout the day (less than 10 knots) mitigating the overall fire weather risk somewhat. Weather wise not much is occurring due to the subsidence caused by the high pressure, as not even diurnal cumulus have been able to form thus far. Temperatures as of 1pm have already warmed into the upper 80s to mid 90s with a few hours remaining of peak heating, the current high temperature forecast remains on track of widespread 90s. The HRRR Near Surface smoke has been showing some elevated areas of smoke moving south down the eastern periphery of the ridge causing the potential for haze to occur through the afternoon and into tomorrow morning, some visibility restrictions are possible especially towards sunrise. Overnight lows for tonight are forecasted in the mid 50s across east Colorado to the mid 60s across eastern portion of the forecast area. A cold front moves through the CWA Tuesday morning as a stronger system occludes over the Great Lakes. As the front moves through winds will switch out of the north with gusty winds along and behind the front, some wind gusts may approach 30-35 mph. Fire weather is again possible due to the wind however, with RH's not as low as today but in the low 20s. Breezy to gusty winds will persist through the afternoon before waning during the evening. Afternoon highs wont be as warm as temperatures will remain in the 80s. Mainly clear skies are expected for Tuesday night with the entire area in the 50s; some locales across east Colorado may even fall into the 40s for a brief period of time. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 157 PM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021 The primary concern in the long term period is the potential for near critical fire weather conditions and blowing dust resulting from a prolonged period of hot and dry conditions combined with breezy winds. A large high pressure area aloft moves across the 4-corners region on Wednesday night and Thursday and into the southern Rockies and southern high plains on Friday and Saturday as several short wave troughs move through the westerly flow tracking along the U.S./Canadian border. With the somewhat chaotic pattern moving across the northern tier of states, model solutions are showing a wide variety of timing and location differences with the individual short waves embedded in the flow. Suffice to say the bulk of the dynamics associated with the embedded waves remain north of the central high plains region through the weekend and into the beginning of next week. The consistencies that have remained are the slightly warmer than average temperatures on Wednesday that warm to well above average with highs in the lower to middle 90s on Thursday and the middle to upper 90s on Friday ahead of a cold front that moves across the forecast area early Saturday morning along with one of the stronger short wave troughs aloft moving east of the Rockies and across the northern High Plains. Hot and dry conditions on Thursday and Friday will produce near critical fire weather conditions across mainly the western sections of the forecast area along and west of KS Highway 27. Afternoon minimum relative humidity values across this area will be in the middle teens or lower. Wind speeds are not expected to be over 25 mph at this time, which would keep the area from reaching critical fire weather thresholds. This will, however, bear watching over the next few days as it will be close. The cold front moving across the area early Saturday following several days of hot and dry conditions will bring the potential for blowing dust as wind speeds increase immediately along and behind the front that could continue through mid-day on Saturday. Models are not currently advertising windy conditions, but expect this to change over the next couple of days. Even with the increase in winds with the front, critical fire weather conditions are not expected to be met on Saturday as relative humidity values will not exceed critical thresholds due to high temperatures being slightly cooler with readings in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Temperatures will rise into the lower to middle 90s with an increase in the potential to meet near critical fire weather conditions as afternoon minimum relative humidity values venture back into the teens. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 504 PM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021 Mainly VFR conditions expected for both terminals. Smoke aloft could create hazy conditions that could lower visibility to around 5sm at times from 08z-14z Tuesday for KGLD, and 11z-13z Tuesday for KMCK. Boundary pushing thru the region will see southerly flow currently over the area, to become northerly. Winds for KGLD, southeast to southwest 10-20kts from 00z-08z Tuesday, then northwest around 10kts. By 14z, north-northeast 15-30kts becoming northeast 10-15kts by 21z. Winds for KMCK, light/variable thru 11z Tuesday, then north 10-15kts. Gusts up to 30kts from 13z-23z. By 23z, northeast around 10kts. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...TT LONG TERM...LOCKHART AVIATION...JN