592 
FXUS64 KBRO 061725 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1225 PM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...No changes to the previous aviation package. VFR
expected to prevail through the TAF period, with light to moderate
(and occasionally gusty) south to southeast winds this afternoon
before becoming light and variable overnight tonight. Cannot 
completely rule out a stray shower or thunderstorm through this 
sunset, but chances are too low to include in TAF. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 617 AM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021/ 

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF
period with a southeast breeze during the afternoon hours. Very
patchy shallow fog is possible over the next hour or two and a
brief shower or isolated thunderstorm is possible with the 
seabreeze early this afternoon.  

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 414 AM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021/ 

SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): A 500mb trough swings across the 
Great Lakes and into the Northeast, dragging a cold front down into 
south-central Texas today where it stalls and dissipates into 
Tuesday. The strength of the mid level ridge anchored across Nevada 
weakens locally through the short term as low level moisture 
increases into Tuesday afternoon. This all leads to a gradually 
increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms, generally offshore 
overnight and developing along the seabreeze inland each afternoon. 
Have kept POPs under 15 percent along the coast today, and around 20 
percent Tuesday afternoon across eastern counties. Temperatures top 
off similar to Sunday highs today and a few degrees cooler on 
Tuesday, with a better chance of clouds and showers or isolated 
thunderstorms near peak heating.

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday): Although 500 mb high
pressure will be the dominant force over a majority of Deep South
Texas and the Rio Grande Valley during the period, a slight mid-
level weakness over the western Gulf of Mexico may allow for
isolated showers and thunderstorms over the eastern portion of 
the BRO CWFA Tuesday night through Saturday. A marked increase in 
precipitation chances may occur on Sunday as mid-level low 
pressure forms along the east coast of Mexico. Due to the presence
of the 500 mb ridge, the expected limited chance of rain, and 
associated limited cloud cover, well above normal temperatures are
likely. 

MARINE (Now through Tuesday): Very favorable marine conditions are 
expected to continue through through Tuesday with seas generally 2 
feet or less. The chance of showers and thunderstorms increases 
through the short term, with locally higher winds and seas near any 
thunderstorms.

Tuesday Night through Sunday: Favorable marine conditions are
expected along the Lower Texas Coast during the period with
surface high pressure dominant over the western Gulf of Mexico.
Small Craft Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory are not
likely to be needed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  92  77  91  75 /  10  10  20  10 
BROWNSVILLE          98  77  95  76 /  10  10  20  10 
HARLINGEN            99  75  96  74 /  10  10  20  10 
MCALLEN             101  76  98  75 /  10  10  20  10 
RIO GRANDE CITY     103  75 102  74 /  10  10  10  10 
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   88  81  87  80 /  10  10  20  10 

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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Aviation...67-Mejia