592 FXUS64 KBRO 061725 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1225 PM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021 .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION...No changes to the previous aviation package. VFR expected to prevail through the TAF period, with light to moderate (and occasionally gusty) south to southeast winds this afternoon before becoming light and variable overnight tonight. Cannot completely rule out a stray shower or thunderstorm through this sunset, but chances are too low to include in TAF. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 617 AM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021/ DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period with a southeast breeze during the afternoon hours. Very patchy shallow fog is possible over the next hour or two and a brief shower or isolated thunderstorm is possible with the seabreeze early this afternoon. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 414 AM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): A 500mb trough swings across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast, dragging a cold front down into south-central Texas today where it stalls and dissipates into Tuesday. The strength of the mid level ridge anchored across Nevada weakens locally through the short term as low level moisture increases into Tuesday afternoon. This all leads to a gradually increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms, generally offshore overnight and developing along the seabreeze inland each afternoon. Have kept POPs under 15 percent along the coast today, and around 20 percent Tuesday afternoon across eastern counties. Temperatures top off similar to Sunday highs today and a few degrees cooler on Tuesday, with a better chance of clouds and showers or isolated thunderstorms near peak heating. LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday): Although 500 mb high pressure will be the dominant force over a majority of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley during the period, a slight mid- level weakness over the western Gulf of Mexico may allow for isolated showers and thunderstorms over the eastern portion of the BRO CWFA Tuesday night through Saturday. A marked increase in precipitation chances may occur on Sunday as mid-level low pressure forms along the east coast of Mexico. Due to the presence of the 500 mb ridge, the expected limited chance of rain, and associated limited cloud cover, well above normal temperatures are likely. MARINE (Now through Tuesday): Very favorable marine conditions are expected to continue through through Tuesday with seas generally 2 feet or less. The chance of showers and thunderstorms increases through the short term, with locally higher winds and seas near any thunderstorms. Tuesday Night through Sunday: Favorable marine conditions are expected along the Lower Texas Coast during the period with surface high pressure dominant over the western Gulf of Mexico. Small Craft Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory are not likely to be needed. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 77 91 75 / 10 10 20 10 BROWNSVILLE 98 77 95 76 / 10 10 20 10 HARLINGEN 99 75 96 74 / 10 10 20 10 MCALLEN 101 76 98 75 / 10 10 20 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 103 75 102 74 / 10 10 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 81 87 80 / 10 10 20 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: https://weather.gov/rgv Aviation...67-Mejia