986 
FXUS65 KBOU 061007
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
407 AM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 327 AM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021

An upper level high will remain over the Great Basin with dry 
northwest flow aloft over the area.  850-700 mb temps warm rise from 
3 to 4 degrees c today.  This will lead to highs in the lower to mid 
90s across nern CO.  HRRR Smoke model shows an increase in smoke for 
this aftn and tonight.  This will continue to see hazy skies. 

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 405 AM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021

The center of the upper ridge is progged to migrate from the 
eastern Great Basin on Tuesday morning 12Z to the Four Corners by
12Z Thursday morning. The synoptic scale energy, according to the
QG Omega fields, is benign Tuesday through Wednesday night. There
is a weak cold front to move through the plains Tuesday morning. 
There is weak upslope flow in the low levels for much of Tuesday.
Weak normal diurnal low level wind patterns are progged Tuesday 
night through Wednesday night. 

Precipitable water values are progged from 0.10 inch west to 0.50
inch far east through the period. Cross sections point to some 
hit and miss upper level cloudiness through the period. There is 
nothing on the QPF fields through Wednesday night. For 
temperatures, Tuesday's highs are 2-5 C cooler than today's 
forecast highs. Wednesday's highs warm-up 1-3 C from Tuesday's 
highs.

For the later days, Thursday through Sunday, models have the 
upper ridge center to move southeastward into central New Mexico 
on Friday and Saturday. The center shifts further eastward on 
Sunday. The flow aloft is weak west and northwesterly much of the 
time, then southwesterly later on Sunday. Limited moisture moves 
into the CWA Saturday into Sunday. Temperatures look to be above 
seasonal normals all four days.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 327 AM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021

Light drainage winds this morning will become light north to 
northeast by 18z. During the early evening hours winds will 
gradually go east and then transition to drainage by midnight. Could 
see some potential for slant wise visibility issues late this 
aftn or tonight if latest HRRR Smoke model is correct.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 327 AM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021

Elevated fire danger will be in place over North and Middle Parks 
this aftn into the early evening hours.  Winds should stay just 
below criteria for Red Flag conditions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 327 AM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021

It will remain dry today and tonight over the burn scars.

Dry weather is now expected through Friday over all entire  
forecast area. There will be a chance of late day showers and 
thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday, mainly over the mountains. At 
this time, heavy rainfall is not expected.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RPK
LONG TERM......RJK
AVIATION.......RPK
FIRE WEATHER...RPK
HYDROLOGY......RPK/RJK