986 FXUS65 KBOU 061007 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 407 AM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 327 AM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021 An upper level high will remain over the Great Basin with dry northwest flow aloft over the area. 850-700 mb temps warm rise from 3 to 4 degrees c today. This will lead to highs in the lower to mid 90s across nern CO. HRRR Smoke model shows an increase in smoke for this aftn and tonight. This will continue to see hazy skies. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 405 AM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021 The center of the upper ridge is progged to migrate from the eastern Great Basin on Tuesday morning 12Z to the Four Corners by 12Z Thursday morning. The synoptic scale energy, according to the QG Omega fields, is benign Tuesday through Wednesday night. There is a weak cold front to move through the plains Tuesday morning. There is weak upslope flow in the low levels for much of Tuesday. Weak normal diurnal low level wind patterns are progged Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Precipitable water values are progged from 0.10 inch west to 0.50 inch far east through the period. Cross sections point to some hit and miss upper level cloudiness through the period. There is nothing on the QPF fields through Wednesday night. For temperatures, Tuesday's highs are 2-5 C cooler than today's forecast highs. Wednesday's highs warm-up 1-3 C from Tuesday's highs. For the later days, Thursday through Sunday, models have the upper ridge center to move southeastward into central New Mexico on Friday and Saturday. The center shifts further eastward on Sunday. The flow aloft is weak west and northwesterly much of the time, then southwesterly later on Sunday. Limited moisture moves into the CWA Saturday into Sunday. Temperatures look to be above seasonal normals all four days. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) Issued at 327 AM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021 Light drainage winds this morning will become light north to northeast by 18z. During the early evening hours winds will gradually go east and then transition to drainage by midnight. Could see some potential for slant wise visibility issues late this aftn or tonight if latest HRRR Smoke model is correct. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 327 AM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021 Elevated fire danger will be in place over North and Middle Parks this aftn into the early evening hours. Winds should stay just below criteria for Red Flag conditions. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 327 AM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021 It will remain dry today and tonight over the burn scars. Dry weather is now expected through Friday over all entire forecast area. There will be a chance of late day showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday, mainly over the mountains. At this time, heavy rainfall is not expected. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM.....RPK LONG TERM......RJK AVIATION.......RPK FIRE WEATHER...RPK HYDROLOGY......RPK/RJK