145 
FXUS63 KBIS 060550
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1250 AM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021

The forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 936 PM CDT Sun Sep 5 2021

Previous discussions remain on track. No changes needed with this
update. 

UPDATE Issued at 639 PM CDT Sun Sep 5 2021

A few high level clouds move through the area this evening, with
otherwise quiet weather. With a light but southerly breeze
tonight, lows won't be as cold, generally in the 50s. No changes
needed with this update. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Sun Sep 5 2021

Main forecast issue is fire weather concerns for Monday afternoon
into evening for much of western and south central North Dakota. 
Upgraded the counties that were in the Fire Weather Watch to a Red
Flag Warning and also added Mercer, Oliver, Morton, Grant and 
Sioux.

A cold front will push across the state mainly during the
afternoon hours with winds shifting to the west/northwest and
strengthening to over 20 mph sustained with stronger gusts. 
Forecast soundings show deep mixing to around 600 mb. Expect 
lowest humidities across southwest and south central parts of the
state, around 15 percent. Min RH will be slightly higher north, 
in the 15-25 percent range, but winds appear to be slightly 
stronger. Recent rains closer to the Missouri River region have 
resulted in greener vegetation, but with the combination of longer
term drought, dead fuels, and the expected wind strength, wind 
shift with the front and low RH, decided to add those counties to 
the Red Flag Warning. 

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Sun Sep 5 2021

Breezy conditions are expected over most of the region on Tuesday,
resulting in near critical fire weather conditions across the
southwest. However, minimum humidities are expected to be slightly
higher southwest, in the 20-25 percent range with stronger winds 
displaced eastward where humidity is expected to be higher. 

Otherwise, much of the long term period will be categorized by a 
strong upper level high centered over the Great Basin and a cut- 
off low generally north of the Great Lakes. This places the 
Northern Plains in northwest flow for much of the week. This 
pattern looks to keep mainly dry conditions across our region, 
with some model differences developing later in the week with a 
more pronounced shortwave trough moving through the flow around 
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021

VFR ceilings and visibilities are expected through the TAF period.
The biggest concern is winds which begin picking up in the morning
further west and in the afternoon further east. Gusts of up to 30
to 35 kts out of a westerly to northwesterly direction are 
possible at the western TAF sites. Winds will begin to diminish in
the late afternoon and early evening hours. An isolated
thunderstorm is also possible at the northern TAF sites during
Monday afternoon.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 10 
PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ009-017>020-031>034-
040>045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Telken
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...Telken