145 FXUS63 KBIS 060550 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1250 AM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 1228 AM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021 The forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 936 PM CDT Sun Sep 5 2021 Previous discussions remain on track. No changes needed with this update. UPDATE Issued at 639 PM CDT Sun Sep 5 2021 A few high level clouds move through the area this evening, with otherwise quiet weather. With a light but southerly breeze tonight, lows won't be as cold, generally in the 50s. No changes needed with this update. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 402 PM CDT Sun Sep 5 2021 Main forecast issue is fire weather concerns for Monday afternoon into evening for much of western and south central North Dakota. Upgraded the counties that were in the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning and also added Mercer, Oliver, Morton, Grant and Sioux. A cold front will push across the state mainly during the afternoon hours with winds shifting to the west/northwest and strengthening to over 20 mph sustained with stronger gusts. Forecast soundings show deep mixing to around 600 mb. Expect lowest humidities across southwest and south central parts of the state, around 15 percent. Min RH will be slightly higher north, in the 15-25 percent range, but winds appear to be slightly stronger. Recent rains closer to the Missouri River region have resulted in greener vegetation, but with the combination of longer term drought, dead fuels, and the expected wind strength, wind shift with the front and low RH, decided to add those counties to the Red Flag Warning. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 402 PM CDT Sun Sep 5 2021 Breezy conditions are expected over most of the region on Tuesday, resulting in near critical fire weather conditions across the southwest. However, minimum humidities are expected to be slightly higher southwest, in the 20-25 percent range with stronger winds displaced eastward where humidity is expected to be higher. Otherwise, much of the long term period will be categorized by a strong upper level high centered over the Great Basin and a cut- off low generally north of the Great Lakes. This places the Northern Plains in northwest flow for much of the week. This pattern looks to keep mainly dry conditions across our region, with some model differences developing later in the week with a more pronounced shortwave trough moving through the flow around Friday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1228 AM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021 VFR ceilings and visibilities are expected through the TAF period. The biggest concern is winds which begin picking up in the morning further west and in the afternoon further east. Gusts of up to 30 to 35 kts out of a westerly to northwesterly direction are possible at the western TAF sites. Winds will begin to diminish in the late afternoon and early evening hours. An isolated thunderstorm is also possible at the northern TAF sites during Monday afternoon. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ009-017>020-031>034- 040>045. && $$ UPDATE...Telken SHORT TERM...JNS LONG TERM...JNS AVIATION...Telken