955 
FXUS64 KTSA 301912
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
212 PM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

.DISCUSSION...
It another hot and humid day today as upper level ridging becomes
centered over the region for the next couple of days. A few
locations may reach 100 degrees this afternoon, with more
widespread highs near and over 100 expected tomorrow. Heat
Advisories remain in effect for the entire forecast area through
8PM this evening, and again from noon to 8 tomorrow. Slightly
lower afternoon dewpoints are expected again tomorrow as
southwesterly winds at the surface act to mix out dewpoints some,
thus will stay with a Heat Advisory for now, though a few areas 
could need to be upgraded in later shifts if dewpoints don't mix 
out as much. Saturday should be the hottest day temperature wise 
as the aforementioned southwesterly winds push temps up a couple 
more degrees ahead of an approaching cold front.

Upper ridge finally begins to weaken and retrograde back west as
mid level flow amplifies and a deep trough swings south across 
the eastern third of the country Saturday night into Sunday. This 
will help bring a cold front into the area late Saturday night and
move south of the area by Monday morning. Scattered showers and 
storms are expected to develop along and behind the front Saturday
night/Sunday morning mainly across far northeast Oklahoma and 
northwest Arkansas. Better chances for convection will then shift 
south and east by Sunday evening. Chances may linger into Monday 
morning across southeastern Oklahoma as a secondary wave could act
to enhance precipitation along and just behind the boundary. 
Widespread severe weather is not expected with deep layer shear 
being minimal to support much updraft organization, but
instability will support a few strong to severe storms along the 
boundary both Saturday and Sunday evening, posing mainly a strong 
wind threat. The atmosphere will also be quite moist, so heavy 
rainfall will be a threat as well, especially if storms move over
the same areas. Cloud cover on Sunday should hold temperatures 
down a bit, though the drier air will lag a bit behind the front 
so muggy conditions will persist through much of the day Sunday.

Cooler and drier conditions will funnel in by Sunday night and
several days of below normal temperatures and lower humidity will
be in store under persistent northwest flow aloft through much of
next week. Slight chance PoPs return by Wednesday and Thursday as
a couple of weak waves drop south through the area. The upper 
ridge then looks to try to build back into the area by late next 
week and into the weekend bringing rising temperatures by the
weekend.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78 101  75  90 /   0   0  30  30 
FSM   76 101  77  93 /   0   0  10  50 
MLC   75  99  76  93 /   0   0  10  40 
BVO   72  99  71  88 /   0  10  50  20 
FYV   68  97  71  87 /   0   0  30  40 
BYV   72  97  71  87 /   0   0  40  40 
MKO   75  98  75  88 /   0   0  20  40 
MIO   74  97  71  87 /   0  10  60  20 
F10   75  99  74  90 /   0   0  10  40 
HHW   76  98  77  96 /   0   0   0  40 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>076.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

&&

$$


LONG TERM....04