955 FXUS64 KTSA 301912 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 212 PM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021 .DISCUSSION... It another hot and humid day today as upper level ridging becomes centered over the region for the next couple of days. A few locations may reach 100 degrees this afternoon, with more widespread highs near and over 100 expected tomorrow. Heat Advisories remain in effect for the entire forecast area through 8PM this evening, and again from noon to 8 tomorrow. Slightly lower afternoon dewpoints are expected again tomorrow as southwesterly winds at the surface act to mix out dewpoints some, thus will stay with a Heat Advisory for now, though a few areas could need to be upgraded in later shifts if dewpoints don't mix out as much. Saturday should be the hottest day temperature wise as the aforementioned southwesterly winds push temps up a couple more degrees ahead of an approaching cold front. Upper ridge finally begins to weaken and retrograde back west as mid level flow amplifies and a deep trough swings south across the eastern third of the country Saturday night into Sunday. This will help bring a cold front into the area late Saturday night and move south of the area by Monday morning. Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop along and behind the front Saturday night/Sunday morning mainly across far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Better chances for convection will then shift south and east by Sunday evening. Chances may linger into Monday morning across southeastern Oklahoma as a secondary wave could act to enhance precipitation along and just behind the boundary. Widespread severe weather is not expected with deep layer shear being minimal to support much updraft organization, but instability will support a few strong to severe storms along the boundary both Saturday and Sunday evening, posing mainly a strong wind threat. The atmosphere will also be quite moist, so heavy rainfall will be a threat as well, especially if storms move over the same areas. Cloud cover on Sunday should hold temperatures down a bit, though the drier air will lag a bit behind the front so muggy conditions will persist through much of the day Sunday. Cooler and drier conditions will funnel in by Sunday night and several days of below normal temperatures and lower humidity will be in store under persistent northwest flow aloft through much of next week. Slight chance PoPs return by Wednesday and Thursday as a couple of weak waves drop south through the area. The upper ridge then looks to try to build back into the area by late next week and into the weekend bringing rising temperatures by the weekend. Bowlan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 78 101 75 90 / 0 0 30 30 FSM 76 101 77 93 / 0 0 10 50 MLC 75 99 76 93 / 0 0 10 40 BVO 72 99 71 88 / 0 10 50 20 FYV 68 97 71 87 / 0 0 30 40 BYV 72 97 71 87 / 0 0 40 40 MKO 75 98 75 88 / 0 0 20 40 MIO 74 97 71 87 / 0 10 60 20 F10 75 99 74 90 / 0 0 10 40 HHW 76 98 77 96 / 0 0 0 40 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>076. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ049-053>076. AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011- 019-020-029. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ001-002-010- 011-019-020-029. && $$ LONG TERM....04