034 
FXUS64 KEWX 280838
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
338 AM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...

Water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper level low moving into 
Texas from the Gulf this morning. This is bringing middle to upper 
level cloudiness to our CWA and isolated showers and thunderstorms 
north of our area. The surface wind field across our CWA is light 
and variable. The airmass is warm and moist with temperatures from 
the lower 70s to the lower 80s and dewpoints from the middle 60s to 
middle 70s. The upper low will move across to the west today and 
weaken the ridge over our CWA. Combined with daytime heating this 
will lead to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this 
afternoon and early evening. Model consensus is that the better 
chances for convection will be across the north and east today. PW 
values are forecast to be fairly high and brief heavy downpours are 
possible, but storm movement will keep rainfall totals down. The 
extensive cloud cover will keep temperatures down a couple of 
degrees this afternoon. Convection will dissipate with the loss of 
heating this evening, but clouds will linger as the upper low moves 
away to the west. The upper ridge will begin to build back in 
Thursday, but there may be enough lift over the eastern half of the 
area during the afternoon to generate isolated showers and 
thunderstorms. Most of the area will be dry. Temperatures will begin 
to rebound with highs a couple of degrees warmer than today.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...

The subtropical ridge strengthen late during the work week keeping 
the local area dry and warm on Friday. The exception could be an 
isolated shower or a thunderstorm across the coastal plains courtesy 
of the sea breeze. Late Friday night into Saturday the subtropical 
ridge weakens a bit as an upper inverted trough pushes into the 
middle Texas coast. There could be a few stray showers or storms 
across the coastal plains and the far southeast part of South 
Central Texas on Saturday afternoon as the right side of the 
inverted trough brings the lift and elevated pwats to the region. 
The upper inverted trough is forecast to linger around the local 
area through Sunday as it slows down to push to the west due to the 
influence of the subtropical ridge to the north and an upper level 
long wave moving across the Ohio Valley and extending southwestward 
into central Texas. Pwats drop on Sunday with partly cloudy skies in 
the morning shifting to mostly sunny.

High temperatures on Friday into the weekend will be near to 
slightly above normal climate values. Heat indices are expected to 
run around 103 to 107 along and east of Interstate 35 each day from 
Friday through Sunday. Also, for each of these afternoons, there 
could be an hour or two with values at 108 or 109 mainly close to 
the far southeast part of South Central Texas.

Rain chances return Monday afternoon into the evening and continuing 
through the middle of next week as a frontal boundary pushes across 
the Hill Country. Rainfall amounts expected to stay at one quarter 
inch or below during the wet period. Temperatures do cool next week 
to below climate normals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              96  77  97  75  96 /  20  -   20   0  10 
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  96  75  96  75  96 /  20  10  20   0  10 
New Braunfels Muni Airport     96  74  97  74  97 /  20  -   20   0  10 
Burnet Muni Airport            94  74  95  75  95 /  30  -   20   0  10 
Del Rio Intl Airport           99  77 100  78  99 /  20  10  -    0  -  
Georgetown Muni Airport        96  76  96  75  96 /  30  -   20   0  10 
Hondo Muni Airport             95  73  96  73  96 /  10  -   10   0  10 
San Marcos Muni Airport        97  74  97  74  96 /  20  10  20   0  10 
La Grange - Fayette Regional   96  77  97  76  96 /  30  10  20  -   20 
San Antonio Intl Airport       94  75  95  75  94 /  10  -   10  -   10 
Stinson Muni Airport           96  76  96  76  96 /  10  -   10   0  10 

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...05
Long-Term...17