034 FXUS64 KEWX 280838 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 338 AM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021 .SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)... Water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper level low moving into Texas from the Gulf this morning. This is bringing middle to upper level cloudiness to our CWA and isolated showers and thunderstorms north of our area. The surface wind field across our CWA is light and variable. The airmass is warm and moist with temperatures from the lower 70s to the lower 80s and dewpoints from the middle 60s to middle 70s. The upper low will move across to the west today and weaken the ridge over our CWA. Combined with daytime heating this will lead to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. Model consensus is that the better chances for convection will be across the north and east today. PW values are forecast to be fairly high and brief heavy downpours are possible, but storm movement will keep rainfall totals down. The extensive cloud cover will keep temperatures down a couple of degrees this afternoon. Convection will dissipate with the loss of heating this evening, but clouds will linger as the upper low moves away to the west. The upper ridge will begin to build back in Thursday, but there may be enough lift over the eastern half of the area during the afternoon to generate isolated showers and thunderstorms. Most of the area will be dry. Temperatures will begin to rebound with highs a couple of degrees warmer than today. && .LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)... The subtropical ridge strengthen late during the work week keeping the local area dry and warm on Friday. The exception could be an isolated shower or a thunderstorm across the coastal plains courtesy of the sea breeze. Late Friday night into Saturday the subtropical ridge weakens a bit as an upper inverted trough pushes into the middle Texas coast. There could be a few stray showers or storms across the coastal plains and the far southeast part of South Central Texas on Saturday afternoon as the right side of the inverted trough brings the lift and elevated pwats to the region. The upper inverted trough is forecast to linger around the local area through Sunday as it slows down to push to the west due to the influence of the subtropical ridge to the north and an upper level long wave moving across the Ohio Valley and extending southwestward into central Texas. Pwats drop on Sunday with partly cloudy skies in the morning shifting to mostly sunny. High temperatures on Friday into the weekend will be near to slightly above normal climate values. Heat indices are expected to run around 103 to 107 along and east of Interstate 35 each day from Friday through Sunday. Also, for each of these afternoons, there could be an hour or two with values at 108 or 109 mainly close to the far southeast part of South Central Texas. Rain chances return Monday afternoon into the evening and continuing through the middle of next week as a frontal boundary pushes across the Hill Country. Rainfall amounts expected to stay at one quarter inch or below during the wet period. Temperatures do cool next week to below climate normals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 96 77 97 75 96 / 20 - 20 0 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 96 75 96 75 96 / 20 10 20 0 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 96 74 97 74 97 / 20 - 20 0 10 Burnet Muni Airport 94 74 95 75 95 / 30 - 20 0 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 99 77 100 78 99 / 20 10 - 0 - Georgetown Muni Airport 96 76 96 75 96 / 30 - 20 0 10 Hondo Muni Airport 95 73 96 73 96 / 10 - 10 0 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 97 74 97 74 96 / 20 10 20 0 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 96 77 97 76 96 / 30 10 20 - 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 94 75 95 75 94 / 10 - 10 - 10 Stinson Muni Airport 96 76 96 76 96 / 10 - 10 0 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term/Aviation...05 Long-Term...17