599 
FXUS63 KOAX 220902
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
402 AM CDT Thu Jul 22 2021

...Updated Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Thu Jul 22 2021

A look at GOES mid-level water vapor imagery this morning shows
the ever-constant ridge that has been reigning supreme over much
of the western and central CONUS as of late. A few very small
pop-up showers were mustered in southeastern South Dakota in 
association with a subtle mid-level shortwave, but that activity
is expected to stay north of the forecast area. For today, a 
noticeable 3-5 degree jump in high temperatures will kick off the
forecast period as southerly winds continue out of the SSE at 10 
to 20 mph.

Looking at Friday through the weekend, temperatures are expected 
to continue their climb up with highs currently anticipated to 
reach 95 to just over 100 for Friday and Saturday. With that said,
the more dense wildfire smoke has dodged the Nebraska and 
southwestern Iowa thus far is currently forecast to begin wafting
southward into the forecast area Friday into the weekend. This 
denser smoke aloft could temper some of the abnormally hot highs, 
and we plan on monitoring observations and model output north of 
the area today to get a feel for how much that may affect highs 
this Friday into the weekend. Nonetheless a hot couple of days is
expected for much of the area, with some late evening/overnight 
weaker storm chances Friday that could join into the fray. The 
main mechanism driving those chances will be convergence along a 
surface trough draped over north-central Nebraska and south- 
central South Dakota.

Sunday into the early work week, shower and storm chances make a 
return to the forecast and max temperatures are expected to reduce
to the mid-to-low 90's. Chances for showers and storms are not
terribly high, as the main drivers for them will be pressure
troughs/convergent boundaries. Models continue to waffle back and
forth with where the main activity and aforementioned surface
features will be placed, and these features are expected to come 
into focus as we get closer. Tuesday into Wednesday model 
solutions to have even more significant spread, with the 
deterministic GFS higher max temperatures of up to 15 degrees 
higher than the ECMWF. Ensemble solutions point to a continued 
pattern of above normal temperatures. Stout mid-level ridging 
is well agreed upon by mid-week, and will unfortunately work to 
keep any meaningful rainfall out of the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Wed Jul 21 2021

VFR conditions and persistent southerly winds should continue
through the next 24 hours. Mixed cloud bases are expected, with 
one layer of clouds between 10,000 and 20,000 ft AGL and a second 
between 4,500 and 6,000 ft AGL (mainly between 16Z Thursday and 
01Z Friday for the lower layer). Southerly winds should range 
from 6 to 16 kts, with a few gusts in the 20 to 25 kt range 
between 16Z and 23Z Thursday. No weather hazards are expected at 
the TAF sites (KOMA, KOFK and KLNK).


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Albright