599 FXUS63 KOAX 220902 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 402 AM CDT Thu Jul 22 2021 ...Updated Forecast Discussion... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 312 AM CDT Thu Jul 22 2021 A look at GOES mid-level water vapor imagery this morning shows the ever-constant ridge that has been reigning supreme over much of the western and central CONUS as of late. A few very small pop-up showers were mustered in southeastern South Dakota in association with a subtle mid-level shortwave, but that activity is expected to stay north of the forecast area. For today, a noticeable 3-5 degree jump in high temperatures will kick off the forecast period as southerly winds continue out of the SSE at 10 to 20 mph. Looking at Friday through the weekend, temperatures are expected to continue their climb up with highs currently anticipated to reach 95 to just over 100 for Friday and Saturday. With that said, the more dense wildfire smoke has dodged the Nebraska and southwestern Iowa thus far is currently forecast to begin wafting southward into the forecast area Friday into the weekend. This denser smoke aloft could temper some of the abnormally hot highs, and we plan on monitoring observations and model output north of the area today to get a feel for how much that may affect highs this Friday into the weekend. Nonetheless a hot couple of days is expected for much of the area, with some late evening/overnight weaker storm chances Friday that could join into the fray. The main mechanism driving those chances will be convergence along a surface trough draped over north-central Nebraska and south- central South Dakota. Sunday into the early work week, shower and storm chances make a return to the forecast and max temperatures are expected to reduce to the mid-to-low 90's. Chances for showers and storms are not terribly high, as the main drivers for them will be pressure troughs/convergent boundaries. Models continue to waffle back and forth with where the main activity and aforementioned surface features will be placed, and these features are expected to come into focus as we get closer. Tuesday into Wednesday model solutions to have even more significant spread, with the deterministic GFS higher max temperatures of up to 15 degrees higher than the ECMWF. Ensemble solutions point to a continued pattern of above normal temperatures. Stout mid-level ridging is well agreed upon by mid-week, and will unfortunately work to keep any meaningful rainfall out of the forecast. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1119 PM CDT Wed Jul 21 2021 VFR conditions and persistent southerly winds should continue through the next 24 hours. Mixed cloud bases are expected, with one layer of clouds between 10,000 and 20,000 ft AGL and a second between 4,500 and 6,000 ft AGL (mainly between 16Z Thursday and 01Z Friday for the lower layer). Southerly winds should range from 6 to 16 kts, with a few gusts in the 20 to 25 kt range between 16Z and 23Z Thursday. No weather hazards are expected at the TAF sites (KOMA, KOFK and KLNK). && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Petersen AVIATION...Albright