936 
FXUS64 KMAF 150743
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
243 AM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

VFR conditions with light and occasionally gusty southeast winds
will continue the next 24 hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

Yesterday was once again well below normal for temperatures in most 
locations, but that may come to an end the next couple of days. 
Models are showing warmer temps advecting into the area with 850mb 
temps increasing about 2.5C today over yesterday. This would 
translate into about a 4F rise in highs which is right in line with 
NBM guidance, though still a couple of degrees cooler than MET/MAV. 
This is unsurprising given the MET/MAV have been consistently too 
warm since the heavy rains we had recently. Apparently guidance is 
still struggling with the high soil and vegetation moisture content. 

These warmer temperatures should also help cause a few more showers 
and thunderstorms to develop in the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains 
today and tomorrow where 20-30 PoPs are in the forecast. Slow storm 
movement and very modest instability greatly reduces the chances 
that any showers will remain long enough to make it east of the 
Pecos River.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

The weekend is still looking prime for convection out west as our 
western ridge continues to develop over the central Rockies, placing 
our forecast area on the SE edge of the ridge. With the thermal 
trough well west of TX, temps will remain below normal for much of 
the region with mainly 90s encompassing all of West TX and Southeast 
NM, outside the high terrain. The pattern shifts to an active state 
by early next week as another cold front makes an appearance from 
the north. It's a complex pattern for July, but certainly one that 
can favor increasing shower and storm chances, as well as locally 
heavy rainfall as easterly winds lead some much higher than normal 
precipitable water values (PWATs) into the entire forecast area. In 
fact, as much as 2 standard deviations above normal for PWATs are 
being depicted by long range deterministic guidance over 3/4's of 
West TX. Basically, this is saying any rainfall could be heavy at 
times, and flooding will be the main concern locally, pending radar 
trends. Temperatures of course will be even lower thanks to lower 
height pattern and increased cloudiness regionwide. Highs in the 80s 
will be the most common, which is a good 10-15 degrees below normal 
for late-July. This bizarre stretch of wet, and seasonally cool 
weather will not be ceasing until MAYBE next weekend at this rate.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               93  72  93  72 /   0  10  10  10 
Carlsbad                 97  72  97  72 /  20  20  20  20 
Dryden                   95  73  96  73 /  10   0  10  10 
Fort Stockton            97  71  98  71 /  10   0  10  10 
Guadalupe Pass           90  70  90  70 /  20  20  30  20 
Hobbs                    94  70  94  70 /  20  20  10  20 
Marfa                    89  62  90  64 /  10  10  20  20 
Midland Intl Airport     94  71  94  71 /   0  10  10  10 
Odessa                   95  71  95  71 /  10  10  10  10 
Wink                     99  73  99  73 /  10  10  10  10 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...10